Netanyahu's Nightmare Revealed — How the Right Lost Up to 25 Seats

Israel's right-wing electorate is losing up to 25 seats: voters are not ready to vote for coalition parties. The shift to the right in society is not reflected in support for Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit. The opposition is trying to win over right-wing voters but faces distrust. The creation of a new right-wing party is being discussed.

The election campaign in Israel is just beginning, but party headquarters are recording a worrying picture for the right-wing camp. After the war, society has shifted to the right, yet the right-wing bloc, represented by the coalition, is weakening. According to estimates, between 15 and 25 seats belong to voters with right-wing views who, at this stage, refuse to support Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit. If before October 7 the right-wing positions were supported by about 68 seats, now there should be more than 70, possibly up to 75, but even the most favorable polls give the right-wing bloc only about 62 seats. Reasons for the refusal of part of the right-wing electorate: the composition of the Likud list, the alliance with the Haredim, dissatisfaction with the government's actions during the October 7 tragedy, the rising cost of living, and disappointment due to the failure of the judicial reform. Opposition politicians — Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman, and Benny Gantz — are building their campaign on tough rhetoric, but do not provide a convincing answer on issues of tradition and religious identity. The author emphasizes contradictions in their past positions. Within the coalition, the connection with the Haredim remains a weak point. Netanyahu is trying to change perceptions, including through statements about a future law on arresting those who evade yeshiva studies. The creation of a new right-wing party is being discussed, with possible figures including Ofer Winter. Netanyahu is strengthening control within Likud, weakening a potential alliance between David Bitan and Haim Katz.