Neither Turkey nor Israel: The superpower that is about to dominate the Middle East now

Atlantic commentator Robert Kagan argues that Iran has emerged strengthened from its confrontation with the US and Israel, exploited the weakness of Gulf states and its control of the Strait of Hormuz, and may become the dominant power in the region. Control of the strait gives Iran daily leverage over dozens of countries, and Gulf states are seeking compromises with Tehran.

In an article in The Atlantic, commentator Robert Kagan argues that Iran has emerged strengthened from its confrontation with the US and Israel, exploited the weakness of Gulf states and its control of the Strait of Hormuz, and may become the dominant power in the Middle East. According to him, absolute control of the Strait of Hormuz is a far more effective weapon than a single nuclear bomb, as it gives Iran daily leverage over dozens of countries. Through the strait, Tehran can reward friends, punish enemies, and undermine the international sanctions regime. Countries like Japan and South Korea will be forced to choose between a steady energy supply and American sanctions. Kagan notes that while the 'Abraham Accords' symbolized the containment of Iran, new alliances are now developing, such as the 'Mecca Agreement' between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, indicating a search for compromises with Tehran. He concludes that the ayatollahs' regime, corrupt and hated by its people, may one day fall, but for now it emerges strengthened after forcing the world's most powerful power to retreat.