More serious than Iran – why Turkey's influence requires an immediate response

Former IDF Operations Directorate head Israel Ziv warns in a Maariv article that Turkey's strengthening under Erdogan poses a more serious long-term threat to Israel than Iran. Ziv notes that Ankara is exploiting the regional vacuum created by the weakening of the Iranian axis, the crisis in Gaza, and tensions in Israel-US relations. In his view, Turkey seeks to cement its influence in Syria, Gaza, and Egypt, and a new defense agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan could form the basis for a broader Sunni configuration. Ziv calls on Israel to pursue active regional diplomacy rather than military confrontation.

Former IDF Operations Directorate head Israel Ziv, in an article published by Maariv on August 21, 2026, warns that Turkey's strengthening under Recep Tayyip Erdogan poses a more serious long-term strategic threat to Israel than Iran. According to Ziv, Ankara is skillfully exploiting the regional vacuum created by the weakening of the Iranian axis, the crisis in Gaza, tensions between Israel and the US, and deteriorating attitudes toward the Netanyahu government in the Arab world. Ziv highlights several directions of Turkish expansion: deploying air defense systems in Syria, seeking influence over security mechanisms in Gaza, and building a partnership with Egypt. He attaches particular importance to the new defense agreement between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, which could form the basis for a broader Sunni configuration. The analyst emphasizes that Turkey, unlike Iran, is a NATO member with close economic ties to Europe and significant political weight, making countering it far more complex. Ziv warns that relying solely on military tools could lead to tactical victories at the cost of strategic defeat. He calls on Israel to return to active regional diplomacy, reach an agreement on Gaza, strengthen cooperation with Egypt, Jordan, Greece, and Cyprus, and develop the Indian track.