Mamdani, not Trump, may be Netanyahu’s more useful campaign asset - analysis

Analysis of Netanyahu's 2026 campaign billboards, which feature Iran's Khamenei, New York Mayor Mamdani, Erdogan, and Hezbollah's Qassem, contrasting with 2019 billboards showing him with Trump, Putin, and Modi. The shift reflects a move from running on diplomatic prestige to running on fear of enemies. Trump's failure to endorse Netanyahu and a poll showing declining Israeli confidence in Trump's consideration of Israel's security may explain the pivot, with Mamdani's opposition seen as more useful to the campaign.

In the run-up to the October 2026 Israeli election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party has unveiled a new billboard campaign that marks a significant shift from his 2019 strategy. The 2019 billboards featured Netanyahu shaking hands with world leaders like Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Narendra Modi, with the caption 'Netanyahu. Another league,' emphasizing his diplomatic prestige. The 2026 billboard instead depicts Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem, with the caption 'They want Netanyahu to lose. Don't let them win.' This change reflects a pivot from running on the strength of his relationships to running on the fear of his enemies. The article notes that Trump has said he may stay out of Israeli elections but could endorse someone, and that his failure to endorse Netanyahu so far may explain the Likud's pivot. The inclusion of Mamdani is seen as symbolic, representing the spread of hard-line anti-Israel politics in the Western mainstream. The article also cites an Israel Democracy Institute poll showing a decline in Israelis' confidence that Trump considers Israel's security a central concern, from 60% in March to 28% in July, with a steeper drop among right-wing voters from 70% to 35%. This suggests that Mamdani's opposition may be more useful to Netanyahu's campaign than Trump's support.