Maariv pollster analyzes election race, Likud challenges, and threshold battles

Maariv pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar analyzes the latest election poll, highlighting parties struggling to pass the electoral threshold, including Am Yisrael and the Reservists and Economic Party. He notes Benny Gantz's weak showing, Likud's internal bloc challenges, and the impact of Arab voter turnout on Arab party strength.

Maariv pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar analyzed the newspaper's latest election poll, published Friday, September 11, 2026. He identified two or three parties in the danger zone near the electoral threshold: Am Yisrael, which is passing by fractions of a percentage point, and the Reservists and Economic Party, which is not passing by similar margins. Religious Zionism and Zehut are passing but cannot rest easy. Blue and White chairman Benny Gantz remains the only smaller-list figure to receive more than 1% support, but he is still far from crossing the threshold. Lazar noted that the bloc of Zionist opposition parties has stabilized, with surplus-vote agreements preventing wasted votes. The merger of Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad has underperformed, while Ra'am holds steady at five seats. Voter turnout among Arab citizens could significantly affect Arab party strength; if turnout matches Jewish society rates, Arab parties could reach 17 seats. Likud's recent primaries did not provide a boost, and internal bloc struggles with Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism, and Am Yisrael are not benefiting Likud. United Torah Judaism faces internal conflict between hassidic and Lithuanian factions, while Shas has stagnated at seven seats. Lazar expects voter uncertainty to decline after the holiday.