Kremlin preparing Europe for a new war: what Putin is really up to

Western intelligence agencies warn of a possible Russian attack on NATO between 2026 and 2029. Moscow is betting on hybrid warfare: sabotage, cyberattacks, and psychological pressure, aiming to undermine European support for Ukraine. NATO is rehearsing scenarios from a limited operation in the Baltics to a large-scale invasion, but a full-scale attack is still considered unlikely due to high risks for Russia.

Western intelligence agencies warn that Russia could launch a conventional military attack against a NATO member state between autumn 2026 and 2029. For now, Moscow is focusing on hybrid warfare: sabotage, cyberattacks, incidents involving underwater infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, and psychological pressure. The goal is to undermine European support for Ukraine by creating a sense of constant threat. NATO is rehearsing various scenarios: from a limited operation in a small Baltic town to a large-scale invasion of one of the Baltic states from Belarus and the Kaliningrad region. However, a full-scale attack is still considered unlikely due to high risks for Russia, including a possible confrontation with several NATO states while its war against Ukraine is ongoing. Moscow's hybrid campaign has not achieved its main goal: Europe has not stopped supplying weapons and financial aid to Kyiv.