Khamenei's Gamble: Iran Pressures, but Will Trump Really Blink?

Iran is using its control over the Strait of Hormuz as leverage against the US, hoping high oil prices will deter Trump from striking. This move could deepen its isolation and worsen the economic crisis, with a projected contraction of 6% and inflation of 69%. Oil flow has dropped to 36%, but prices remain below $80.

Iran is turning its control over the Strait of Hormuz into a pressure tool against the US, hoping that rising oil prices will lead President Trump to avoid further strikes. The goal is to prevent future US and Israeli military action, and Iran believes that high fuel prices and soaring inflation will force Trump to accept their terms, especially ahead of midterm elections. Meanwhile, internal rifts are emerging: the Revolutionary Guards see control of the strait as a key pressure point, while moderate elements fear economic collapse. The IMF projects a 6% contraction in Iran's economy in 2026 and annual inflation of about 69%. Oil flow from the Persian Gulf has dropped to about 36% of pre-war levels, but oil prices remain below $80 per barrel. In the long term, countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are investing in bypass routes, but they are still within range of Iranian missiles and drones. The scenario where Iran controls the oil tap is a 'nightmare scenario' for Gulf states.