It will happen without warning: the scenario the IDF is not prepared for

Reserve Colonel Eli Gino warns at Channel 14's security conference that the IDF is not prepared for an internal threat that could erupt without warning, similar to October 7. According to him, the military focused on external arenas and neglected the internal threat, deterrence is eroding, and forces are not trained for urban combat in Israel.

At Channel 14's security conference, Reserve Colonel Eli Gino issued a stark warning: the IDF is not prepared for a scenario of violent internal eruption that would occur without advance warning. Gino argues that the main lesson from October 7 is the element of surprise, and that the military is mired in old concepts and external arenas – Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran – while neglecting the internal threat. He says the relative quiet among Israeli Arabs is temporary, and deterrence is eroding. A small incident, like tensions on the Temple Mount, could ignite a fire that spreads like wildfire. Gino warns that regular forces are not trained for combat in cities like Lod, Ramla, or Jerusalem, and could find themselves in low-tech fighting of M-16s against pistols. He calls for an immediate conceptual change: defining the internal threat as a central reference scenario and building a dedicated force.