Israel Receives Alarming Signal – Why the Crisis in Morocco Is Dangerous

The migration crisis on the Morocco-Spain border, where over 50,000 people breached the border into Ceuta and Melilla, has created a threat to Europe and Israel. Expert Anat Hochberg-Marom warns that internal turmoil in Morocco could limit its maneuverability in relations with Israel, and advises Jerusalem to focus on non-public cooperation.

Israel finds itself at the center of new geopolitical risks after the migration crisis on the Morocco-Spain border exposed Europe's vulnerability. Large-scale unrest and a border breach in the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla, located in northern Morocco, have transcended the scope of a local incident. The simultaneous passage of more than 50,000 people across the border (about 70% of Ceuta's entire population) turned a humanitarian collapse into one of the region's largest diplomatic crises. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Ceuta and Melilla form the only land border between the European Union and the African continent. Moreover, Rabat fundamentally does not recognize Spanish sovereignty over these territories, making them a bone of contention for decades. The crisis exposed deep systemic problems in Madrid-Rabat relations. Since the beginning of the year, illegal border crossings have increased by 164% compared to the same period last year. Morocco, responsible for curbing migration flows, uses the EU's resulting dependence as a tool of political and economic pressure. The consequences of this breach reverberated across Europe: Spain's isolation, divisions within the EU, and friction with the US. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez found himself in a very difficult position. The Italian government decided to close its maritime and air borders to Spain. The situation is aggravated by Madrid's refusal to participate in the international coalition during the Hormuz crisis, which provoked direct criticism from the Trump administration. Rabat clearly sees Madrid's vulnerability and uses border pressure as an effective diplomatic mechanism. Ceuta is located in the strategically critical Strait of Gibraltar. Any instability in this zone immediately creates threats to NATO supply chains and the security of Mediterranean sea routes. As Dr. Anat Hochberg-Marom, a specialist in geopolitics and international crises, notes, what is happening has direct implications for Jerusalem, given Morocco's key role in the Abraham Accords. Morocco is one of Africa's strongest and most dynamically developing economies, with a GDP of around $182.3 billion and projected growth. Since the normalization of relations in 2020, trade between Israel and Morocco has grown by about 300%, reaching $227.5 million, and Israel has become the second-largest arms supplier to the kingdom after the US (Israel's defense industry accounts for about 24% of Rabat's defense purchases). However, as Dr. Anat Hochberg-Marom warns: "Internal turmoil, such as the strengthening of conservative elements, social discontent, or public pressure related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, could limit Rabat's room for maneuver and harden its stance toward Israel." The expert emphasizes that maintaining the stability of the Moroccan government is a strategic asset of paramount importance for Jerusalem. Any shift of Moroccan society toward anti-Western narratives could undermine the fragile balance in the region. According to Anat Hochberg-Marom, contrary to media speculation about some "Israeli involvement" in the crisis, Jerusalem should act with extreme caution. Instead of loud public statements, the focus should be on pragmatic and non-public civil-economic cooperation in areas such as cybersecurity, infrastructure, agrotechnology, and water management. Such a tactic, the analyst concludes, will protect foreign investments, ensure the durability of the Abraham Accords, and turn Morocco from a mere regional partner into a sustainable pillar of national security.