Is Trump Preparing an Invasion and What Scenario for War with Iran – Expert

Former senior Pentagon official David De Roche believes that the Trump administration is unlikely to launch a ground operation against Iran and will most likely significantly expand the air campaign. The expert considers three scenarios: sending ground troops (requires a year), intensifying bombings, or completely ending the campaign. Trump does not want to repeat Biden's actions, so he will choose intense pressure, including strikes on dual-use facilities. Internal political struggle in Iran and corruption fuel discontent, and Trump is counting on a popular uprising.

Former senior Pentagon official David De Roche, in an interview with Iran International, outlined likely scenarios for US military action against Iran. In his opinion, the Trump administration is unlikely to launch a large-scale ground operation due to high risks. The most likely step will be a significant expansion of the current air campaign and an increase in intensive bombings. De Roche considers three scenarios: first, sending ground troops, which would take about a year to form a force; second, a multiple increase in bombings and expansion of the target list, including dual-use facilities (energy, bridges, communications) in the Gulf region and Tehran; third, a complete cessation of the campaign and withdrawal of forces. However, Trump categorically does not want to retreat to avoid repeating Joe Biden's actions. The expert emphasizes that decisions are influenced by economic and political factors: Iran's leadership mistakenly expects Trump's position to worsen due to high fuel prices before the midterm elections. Internal political struggle in Iran, especially from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, undermines the possibility of peace negotiations. Corruption and resource shortages cause public discontent. De Roche is confident that Trump is counting on a popular uprising from within under the pressure of economic sanctions, citing the suppression of protests in late 2019, when between 1,300 and 4,000 people died.