Is Regime Change in Iran Realistic? – Israeli Official
A senior Israeli official stated that regime change in Iran is unlikely. Tehran has about 1,500 ballistic missiles left, production capabilities are depleted. There is a split within the Iranian leadership between those fearing collapse and those relying on the state's monopoly on weapons. Netanyahu and Trump discussed Syria, Lebanon, and the Saudi nuclear deal.
A senior Israeli official commented on the current situation in Iran, calling natural regime change there unlikely. Despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initially assessing such a scenario as quite possible at the start of the military conflict, Israel now acknowledges that without weapons for protesters, fundamental changes will not occur. According to the official, recent executions of dissidents only confirm the dire situation of the ruling circles. Regarding Tehran's military potential, according to the Israeli side, the Iranian authorities have about 1,500 ballistic missiles left. Although this is significantly less than pre-war stockpiles, the country's production capabilities are depleted, and the missile program has been delayed by several years. At the same time, Iran is refraining from accelerated development of nuclear weapons, fearing to lose its remaining scarce capabilities. Within the Iranian leadership itself, disagreements are noted. According to the Israeli representative, the split is not along the line of pragmatists versus radicals, but between those gripped by fear of economic collapse and popular uprising, and those who feel confident relying on the state's monopoly on weapons. The latter include the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has taken a hardline stance. A separate topic of the closed talks between Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office was the situation in the region. The Israeli prime minister used visual maps to convince the American leader of the justification for the Israeli military presence in Syria. Netanyahu pointed out that only 0.1% of Syrian territory is under IDF control, while Turkey occupies 5% of the country. Additionally, the prime minister expressed concern about Ankara's plans to restore the Ottoman Empire and opposed the sale of American F-35 fighter jets to Turkey. The southern part of Lebanon was also discussed, where Israel holds a six-mile buffer zone. After Netanyahu's explanations about the need to protect border towns, Trump did not insist on further withdrawal of Israeli forces. The leaders also touched on the US-Saudi agreement on civilian nuclear energy. Trump assured Netanyahu that this deal is tied to the normalization process between Riyadh and Israel. However, the Israeli official warned that if the agreement is implemented bypassing normalization, Israel will voice public protests.