Iran, the Saudis and Trump: where the great game in the Middle East is heading

An analytical review by Arabist Lior Ben-Ari, published on September 13 in Ynet, describes the current situation in the Middle East: the US has weakened Iran's grip in the Strait of Hormuz and nearly halted Iranian oil exports, but the war is far from over. The Houthis captured the port of Al-Mukha and control over the Bab el-Mandeb, creating a nightmare scenario for Saudi Arabia, whose allies are in no hurry to help.

An analytical review by Arabist Lior Ben-Ari, published on September 13 in Ynet, describes the current situation in the Middle East. The US has managed to weaken Iran's grip in the Strait of Hormuz and nearly completely halt Iranian oil exports, which should accelerate the country's economic decline. However, the war started by the US and Israel on February 28 is far from over. The stalemate is costing all sides dearly. The agreement reached in June quickly collapsed, and no diplomatic progress has been recorded. The Houthis, Iranian proxies in Yemen, have intensified attacks against Saudi Arabia and captured the strategic port of Al-Mukha on the Red Sea coast, gaining control over the Bab el-Mandeb strait. This is a nightmare scenario for Saudi Arabia, which relied on its ally Donald Trump. However, Trump is reluctant to expand a war that is hurting his popularity ahead of the congressional elections. Saudi Arabia announced on September 11 the closure of an oil pipeline after drone attacks. The kingdom has few options: escalating attacks could lead to retaliatory strikes on infrastructure, while a diplomatic solution with the Houthis requires lifting the blockade, which would strengthen their position. Iran has little interest in stabilizing the region without concessions from the US.