Iran seeks confrontation, but Trump has a different strategy

Assessment sources in Israel and the region determine that Trump has decided on a strategy of avoiding major escalation with Iran until the midterm elections, due to fears of a global energy crisis and the unpopularity of war. Meanwhile, Iran's economic situation worsens, signs of protest emerge, and the Israeli and US militaries prepare for a broader confrontation later. Tehran uses proxies to drag into early escalation.

Assessment sources in Israel and other Middle Eastern countries determine that US President Donald Trump has decided on a strategy toward Iran in the coming months, focusing on avoiding major escalation until the US midterm elections in early November. Trump said yesterday that the US will 'tear the Iranians apart' following the shooting into Jordan, and the US military attacked Iran with great force overnight, but the attack was limited to the Persian Gulf area. According to the sources, Trump does not want a broad confrontation because he does not want a global energy crisis, rising US fuel prices above $4 per gallon, and because politically the war is unpopular among the electorate. The military consideration is that the three months remaining until the elections allow for rapid and increased production of munitions and additional preparations for a broad confrontation that will likely resume later. The administration in Washington has concluded that diplomatic efforts with the new regime in Iran will not succeed, and therefore another significant military confrontation will be required, in which Israel will be a partner. Congress authorized Trump in April to continue a military operation, not a war, and the authorization was valid for 60 days. Trump now needs a pause or low-intensity fighting so that he does not need congressional approval for a long war. Iran's economic situation worsens: Iran's army and Revolutionary Guards cannot pay salaries, there are multiple power outages, and the value of the rial is plummeting. Signs of protest emerge, including a hunger strike by about 1,500 death row prisoners in a prison near Tehran. The Iranians are trying to drag into a broader confrontation through proxies - the Houthis in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq. The meeting between Netanyahu and Trump dealt with overall strategy, and Trump made clear that he will not let up on Iran until he ensures it has no nuclear weapons, and that the enriched material will be handed over to the US, likely after the midterm elections.