Iran’s Strait of Hormuz leverage is fading as global oil keeps flowing - opinion

Iran's leverage over global oil markets via the Strait of Hormuz is fading, as alternative routes and increased production offset the loss of 20 million barrels per day that once passed through the strait. Oil prices remain at $85-$90 a barrel, far below catastrophic forecasts. The US campaign, including the new "Economic D-Day" sanctions, aims to collapse the Iranian regime's revenue.

Iran's leverage over global oil markets via the Strait of Hormuz is fading, as alternative routes and increased production offset the loss of 20 million barrels per day that once passed through the strait. According to US government figures, the US, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf states can now move about 15-16 million barrels per day, with roughly 10 million leaving on tankers through the strait under US naval protection and another 5-6 million moving by air and pipelines. Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline now transfers 7 million barrels a day, and the UAE's Habshan-Fujairah line is running near its ceiling of 1.5-1.8 million barrels a day. Oil prices remain at $85-$90 a barrel, far below the $150-plus levels many analysts warned about. The US campaign, including the new "Economic D-Day" sanctions, aims to collapse the Iranian regime's revenue through aggressive secondary sanctions against any company, bank, or nation still trading with Tehran. The rial has fallen to 1,500,000 per dollar from 50,000 a year ago, hitting salaried workers hardest. The article argues that Iran can no longer use the strait as leverage over the global economy, though the threat of Iranian missile and drone strikes on Gulf oil infrastructure remains.