Iran remains standing — the Middle East begins preparing for the worst

Middle Eastern countries are restructuring regional relations, taking into account a possible reduction of the American presence and the survival of the regime in Iran. Orientalist Mordechai Kedar believes that Iran's survival after the confrontation with the US affects the calculations of its neighbors. He notes the different political goals of Trump and Netanyahu, Israel's dependence on Washington, and the emergence of new alliances as preparation for a stronger Iran. The key factor is the preservation of the Iranian regime, which gives Tehran tools of pressure, including the Strait of Hormuz.

Middle Eastern countries are beginning to restructure the system of regional relations, taking into account the possibility of a reduced American presence and the survival of the current regime in Iran. Despite the damage Tehran has suffered, the very fact of its survival after a large-scale confrontation with the US could seriously affect the calculations of neighboring states. This assessment was voiced by orientalist Mordechai Kedar. In his opinion, the ongoing changes must be viewed in the context of the political situation in both the United States and Israel. Kedar believes that Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are interested in showing voters the results of the current campaign, but their political goals differ. The American president needs to demonstrate the ability to achieve regional stabilization, while the Israeli prime minister needs a convincing picture of victory over the country's main adversaries. At the same time, the expert drew attention to Israel's high dependence on Washington's decisions. In his view, relying almost exclusively on American support limits Israel's freedom of action. Kedar believes that the country should have simultaneously developed closer ties with other major powers. This issue, in his opinion, will become especially relevant after the end of Trump's presidency or in the event of a serious change in the political balance in the US. Simultaneously, new regional alliances are emerging in the Middle East. Kedar asserts that their formation should be seen primarily as an attempt by states to prepare for a possible strengthening of Iran, not as a coalition directly against Israel. The key factor is the perception of the war's outcome. Although Iran has suffered significant damage, its political regime has survived. It is this, according to Kedar, that neighboring states may view as the most important indicator of Tehran's ability to withstand a direct confrontation with a much stronger adversary. As a result, countries in the region are forced to consider a scenario in which American pressure weakens over time and the current government in Iran remains. Particularly serious concerns are raised by the prospect of reduced US involvement after a change in the political situation in Washington. An additional factor remains the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran's ability to influence shipping through one of the world's most important energy routes continues to give it a serious tool of pressure on neighbors and the international community. Kedar compared the current situation to a chess game. In his opinion, damage inflicted on the enemy does not yet mean final victory if its leadership and political system continue to exist.