Iran loses control over Hormuz — Gulf states find a loophole

Gulf states have begun using a scheme to transport oil through the Strait of Hormuz by disabling AIS tracking systems and transferring crude to other vessels in the Gulf of Oman, bypassing Iranian threats. CNN identified over a dozen such transfers in two days. The oil was destined for China, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand. According to the U.S. Energy Department, 8–9 million barrels pass through the strait daily, double some regular monitoring figures.

Gulf states have found a way to bypass Iranian threats in the Strait of Hormuz by using a scheme that involves disabling tracking systems and transferring oil at sea. According to CNN, tankers turn off the Automatic Identification System (AIS) before crossing the dangerous area and then transfer crude to other vessels in the Gulf of Oman. An example is the Greek tanker Kiku, which disappeared from monitoring systems on July 31 after loading at Qatar's Mesaieed terminal and reappeared the next day, having already passed through the strait. Analytics firm Kpler recorded that during two studied weeks, about 80% of traffic through the strait occurred without transmitting AIS signals. CNN identified over a dozen such transfers in just two days. After these operations, the oil was sent to China, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, 8–9 million barrels of oil may now pass through the strait daily—roughly double some regular monitoring figures. Saudi Arabia is also redirecting about 5 million barrels per day via the East-West pipeline to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. However, full risk compensation is impossible: transfers, additional voyages, and security measures raise transportation costs, and disabling AIS does not protect against attacks. Oil is approaching $100 per barrel.