Iran is betting the West will break first - but its clock is already ticking | Dan Perry

Dan Perry argues that Iran is betting the West will break first under economic pressure, but its floating oil reserves are dwindling. If the US holds out politically, within about six months the regime could face a deep crisis. Perry notes that Iranian oil exports to China have dropped to about 534,000 barrels per day, compared to an average of about 1.4 million last year. The floating stock outside the blockade zone has fallen from about 105 million barrels to about 80 million. Perry argues that China, which buys over 80% of Iranian oil exports, may accelerate the process if it identifies a lost cause. He adds that the regime suffers from chronic electricity shortages, crumbling infrastructure, and a water crisis, and that the rial has lost about 80% of its value against the dollar since 2022. Perry criticizes Trump for failing to sell the idea of holding out over time.