Iran goes all-in, hoping to break Trump - media
Iran is betting on a prolonged standoff with the US, hoping that pressure on global trade and energy routes will force Trump to make concessions. The strategy is controlled escalation, with the Strait of Hormuz as the main tool. Tehran is confident it can outlast the US and its allies. However, this strategy carries the risk of a major war.
Iran is betting on a prolonged standoff with the US, hoping that pressure on global trade and energy routes will eventually force Donald Trump to make concessions. Tehran is pursuing a strategy of controlled escalation, trying to expand the crisis without turning it into a full-scale war. According to Reuters, sources in Gulf countries believe that Iran's leadership is confident in its ability to outlast the US and its allies. The main tool of pressure remains the Strait of Hormuz, through which vital energy supply routes pass. In recent weeks, Trump has repeatedly stated both the possibility of an imminent strike on Iran and a breakthrough in negotiations. Tehran, meanwhile, has denied reports of direct dialogue, after which the sides returned to mutual accusations and threats. The point of Iran's strategy is not to achieve a quick military victory. Tehran seeks to convince the US that protecting shipping, energy infrastructure, and regional allies will cost Washington more than agreeing to some of Iran's demands. Tehran believes that Trump's reluctance to start a new large-scale campaign opens opportunities for further pressure. Iran's leadership expects that rising costs, trade disruptions, and allied fatigue will gradually weaken the White House's position. According to one regional source, Iranians are confident that Trump will eventually give in if the crisis expands and the price of containing it continues to rise. At the same time, Iran is convinced that an attempt to deliver a powerful strike will not force the country to capitulate. Iranian officials have also concluded that previous attempts to show flexibility only led to increased US pressure. Tehran believes that Washington perceives concessions as a sign of weakness and only responds to the creation of real leverage. The central issue remains the future of the Strait of Hormuz. Oman has proposed a management option for the sea route, involving a voluntary fee for ship passage. Iran, however, seeks broader administrative control and the right to collect fees itself. The US rejects these demands and insists that the strait must remain a free international waterway. Washington also states that American forces already ensure control over shipping and will not allow Iran to dictate terms. Meanwhile, Tehran is expanding the geography of pressure. Threats affect not only the Strait of Hormuz but also the Bab el-Mandeb, the Red Sea, and energy facilities in regional countries. This forces US allies to focus increasingly on defense. A maritime coalition led by Saudi Arabia is forming to escort merchant ships, share intelligence, and protect key routes. For Iran, such a reaction is considered a success. Unable to directly compete with US military power, Tehran forces adversaries to disperse resources and constantly defend vast infrastructure. Each new threat increases the cost of maintaining uninterrupted global trade. Iran expects that over time, the economic consequences will become more painful for Western states than for the regime itself. However, this strategy carries serious risks. Even limited and calculated escalation can spiral out of control if one side misjudges the other's actions or decides to launch a preemptive strike. Meanwhile, Trump has accused Iran's leadership of duplicity. According to him, Iranian representatives seek meetings and then publicly deny the existence of negotiations and continue to threaten control over the Strait of Hormuz. The US president said that a blockade would deprive Iran of the ability to freely obtain necessary resources. He again demanded an agreement or complete capitulation and stressed that Iran will not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons.