In risky gamble, Iran bets control over Strait of Hormuz can force Trump to bend

Iran is betting that military pressure and control over the Strait of Hormuz will force the US to accept its terms, according to an analysis. Tehran believes time is on its side due to US weapon stockpile depletion, war unpopularity, and high gas prices before November elections. Iran is close to a deal with Oman to manage the strait, conditioned on US lifting its blockade. Risks include US strikes on Iran's leadership and economy, and potential internal unrest. The war began with US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28 that killed Iran's supreme leader.

Iran is engaged in a risky gamble, betting that its military control over the Strait of Hormuz will force the United States to accept its terms, according to an analysis. Tehran believes time is on its side, citing the depletion of key US weapons like missile interceptors, the war's unpopularity among Americans, and the sustained high prices of gas and goods ahead of the November congressional elections. Iran's leaders calculate that a forced reopening of the strait would be costly and might require US ground troops, and they note their Houthi allies could widen the conflict. Iran says it is close to a deal with Oman to manage the strait, but it would be conditioned on the US lifting its blockade. Formal control over the strait would be a clear win for Iran and a loss for the US, dealing a blow to global norms on freedom of navigation. Iran feels time is on its side, with an adviser to its chief negotiator stating that Iran seeks the enemy's defeat, not an agreement. However, the strategy carries risks: US strikes have decimated Iran's leadership and military, its economy is battered by a blockade, and mass protests occurred just months ago. The war began with US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28 that killed Iran's supreme leader, and it has since bogged down, with Iran using the strait to show it has not been defeated and to increase its domestic legitimacy.