In Israel, signs are identified: Iran's hawkish leadership is preparing for an offensive move

Israeli sources identify signs that Tehran's hawkish leadership is changing its operational concept and preparing to expand the conflict. A senior Israeli official assesses that economic pressure may push Iran to an offensive move, including strikes on energy infrastructure and shipping lanes. Meanwhile, reports indicate restoration of missile and drone capabilities, and tightening control by the Revolutionary Guards. Israel is preparing for both scenarios: defense and offense.

Israeli sources identify signs that Tehran's hawkish leadership is changing its operational concept and preparing for the possibility of expanding the conflict. At the center of the assessment: Iran may try to exert military and economic pressure on the United States and Israel, including through strikes on energy infrastructure, shipping lanes, and Washington's allies in the region. A senior Israeli official assesses that "specifically the economic pressure on Iran may push it to an offensive move." According to him, if Tehran concludes that the continued blockade threatens the regime's stability, it may try to change the equation through regional escalation. The possible Iranian logic: striking energy routes would raise oil and fuel prices in the US, increasing political pressure on Trump to end the campaign. Midterm elections are expected in November, and the economic cost of the war could become a significant political issue. Israel is following Iran's efforts to restore missile and drone capabilities, with the pace of restoration higher than expected. The Defense Ministry announced in June an acceleration in the production of "Arrow" interceptors. The nuclear program question is at the center of attention, with the underground site at Mount Khoash near Natanz, which IAEA inspectors were not allowed to visit. Israel is preparing for both directions: defense against an Iranian attack or an attack by its proxies, while maintaining offensive capability. There is concern about miscalculation that could cause an attack out of fear that the other side is about to strike. According to Iranian and Arab sources, the hawkish leaders believe the agreement was an attempt to buy time, and they are preparing for a larger battle, including giving more control to the Revolutionary Guards and increasing missile and drone production.