How new parties threaten Netanyahu's coalition – assessment

Attorney Sophie Ron-Moria, in an article for Maariv, analyzes the threats to Netanyahu's coalition from new parties. The main risks: a split in the ultra-Orthodox sector (radical and moderate wings) and competition on the right flank, where Moshe Feiglin's Zehut party and Ofer Winter's list threaten Bezalel Smotrich's positions. Netanyahu faces a dilemma over merging lists.

Ahead of the elections, Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition faces internal threats not from the opposition but from new political parties eroding the right-wing bloc. An analysis by attorney Sophie Ron-Moria, published in Maariv, highlights two key fronts. In the ultra-Orthodox sector, a split is emerging: a radical party targeting Litvaks, Hasidim, and Sephardim is forming, which will draw votes from Yahadut HaTorah and Shas, and the creation of a centrist party of working Haredim led by Eli Yishai is also being discussed. Both initiatives are unlikely to pass the threshold but will weaken traditional leadership. On the far-right flank, Bezalel Smotrich's positions are threatened by Moshe Feiglin's Zehut party and Ofer Winter's list. According to a poll by the Mano Geva Institute for Channel 12, Winter's party has a chance of entering the Knesset, risking leaving Smotrich out. There are no ideological differences between them—all support judicial reform and a lenient approach to Haredi conscription. The difference lies in positioning: Feiglin attracts anti-system voters, criticizing Smotrich as a "cog in Netanyahu's cart," while Winter relies on his impeccable military record. Netanyahu faces a dilemma: forced merger of Smotrich's and Winter's lists or giving them seats within Likud, which risks a post-election split.