How Much Russia Will Have to Pay Ukraine — the Figure Surprised

Economist Oleh Ustenko assessed the process of obtaining reparations from Russia for the destruction in Ukraine as complex and lengthy, spanning decades. He considers it unrealistic to collect hundreds of billions of dollars at once, as the aggressor lacks free resources. The most viable scenario, according to the expert, is a long-term payment mechanism: Moscow would transfer about $20 billion annually for 50 years. Ustenko reminded that in 2024, losses exceeded $750 billion and continue to grow.

Economist and former presidential economic adviser Oleh Ustenko stated that the process of obtaining reparations from Russia for the massive destruction in Ukraine will be extremely complex, lengthy, and stretch over decades. His opinion is reported by the publication "Militarist." According to him, counting on a one-time or even quick collection of hundreds of billions of dollars within a few years is unrealistic, since the aggressor simply does not have free resources of that volume. Ustenko emphasized that an attempt to force Russia to pay the entire compensation package in a short period would force it to completely freeze social obligations—for example, effectively shut down its own pension fund. The expert considers the most viable and physically feasible scenario to be a long-term payment mechanism, under which Moscow would transfer about $20 billion annually for 50 years. For the Russian economy, this figure would remain noticeable but "bearable," and Ukraine would receive a guaranteed source of funding for long-term reconstruction. The analyst reminded that back in 2024, direct and indirect losses from hostilities exceeded $750 billion, and since then this amount has continued to grow steadily. Although the international community is discussing the transfer of frozen Russian assets, creating a full-fledged legal and practical mechanism for long-term reparation collection will require enormous efforts and sustained international agreements.