Houthis' control of Red Sea coastline leaves Gulf states with uncomfortable choice - analysis

The Houthi capture of Yemen's Red Sea coastline is reshaping the Gulf's balance of power, strengthening Iran's hand and forcing Saudi Arabia and its neighbors to choose between absorbing mounting costs or seeking accommodation with Tehran. The Iran-aligned group now threatens the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a critical global shipping artery, while Iran chokes off the Strait of Hormuz. Regional officials and analysts say the strategy is designed to raise oil prices and fuel inflation, narrowing the region's reliance on Washington. A planned Gulf-Iran meeting in Oman was postponed over disagreements on terms.

The Houthi capture of Yemen's Red Sea coastline is reshaping the balance of power in the Gulf, strengthening Iran's hand and confronting Saudi Arabia and its neighbors with a difficult choice: absorb mounting costs or seek accommodation with Tehran. By securing a position overlooking Bab el-Mandeb, one of the world's most important shipping arteries, the Iran-aligned group has opened a second pressure point, threatening Saudi oil exports diverted from the Strait of Hormuz. The calculation, according to regional officials and analysts, is straightforward: by threatening Red Sea shipping while Iran chokes off Hormuz, Tehran and the Houthis can raise oil prices and fuel inflation while narrowing the region's prospects of relying on Washington to resolve the crisis. The strategy is designed to force a stark choice on Gulf states: put up with growing economic pain from the squeeze on their oil exports and Iranian strikes or engage with Iran to protect trade, energy flows and economic stability. A meeting in Oman between Gulf Arab foreign ministers and their Iranian counterpart to discuss a possible arrangement on the Strait of Hormuz has been postponed over disagreements on the terms of the talks. The dilemma for the Gulf states is that geography is immutable, and the conflict triggered by US and Israeli attacks on Iran has blown apart decades of diplomatic efforts to contain it. The Houthis, drawn from Yemen's Zaydi Shi'ite minority, fought a series of wars with Saudi Arabia before seizing Sanaa in 2014, prompting a Saudi-led intervention the following year. Despite years of air strikes and cross-border warfare, they survived, expanded their capabilities, and emerged as one of Iran's most effective regional allies.