Houthi gains threaten to strangle the alternative to the Strait of Hormuz

The Houthis' military progress in Yemen threatens backup routes for Gulf oil exports, primarily through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Brent crude oil prices have climbed to around $105 per barrel amid fears that alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, which were bolstered following the war with Iran, are now under threat. The article analyzes the economic implications for Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and global trade.

The Houthis' military advances in Yemen in recent weeks threaten one of the main backup routes for oil exports from the Persian Gulf—the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Brent crude oil prices have climbed to around $105 per barrel amid fears that alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, which were bolstered following the war with Iran, are now under real threat. The article presents dramatic data: in the second quarter of 2026, 8.1 million barrels of oil and its products passed through Bab el-Mandeb daily, compared to only 5.6 million in the first quarter. This surge occurred while traffic through Hormuz plummeted from 21.6 million barrels per day at the end of 2025 to about 4.9 million in the second quarter of this year. Saudi Arabia has increased the use of the East-West pipeline to its maximum capacity of about 7 million barrels per day, but Houthi advances along the western coast are undermining the value of this alternative. The Houthis do not need to physically block the strait to cause economic damage—rising risk increases insurance premiums, security costs, and wages, and sometimes necessitates circumnavigating Africa. Egypt has already lost more than $10 billion in Suez Canal revenues due to disruptions. Saudi Arabia recorded a budget deficit of $9.1 billion in the second quarter despite a 22% increase in oil revenues. The conclusion: Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are becoming a single risk system, and a price of $105 per barrel may become permanent rather than temporary.