Halve Humanity by 2200: Scientists Propose Bizarre Plan
Scientists from the US and nine other countries have proposed reducing the Earth's population from 8 to 4 billion by 2200 through voluntary birth rate reduction. The publication in the journal Sustainable Development drew criticism from economists, who pointed out methodological errors and confusion of cause and effect. Researcher Ilya Stakheev explained that this is only a theoretical model, not a real plan.
Scientists from the US and nine other countries, led by Mark Kegan from Columbia University, published a proposal in the journal Sustainable Development to gradually reduce the birth rate by 2200, aiming to cut the Earth's population from 8 to 4 billion people. The authors claim this will reduce pressure on ecosystems and ensure a high level of well-being. The publication caused a stir in the media, but economists and science communicators criticized the calculations. Science researcher Ilya Stakheev explained that this is merely an invitation to discussion, not a guide to action. Critics point to a confusion of cause and effect: the rise in emissions is linked to technology and income, not just population size. They also noted a factual error in demography: the authors confused the share of the working-age population with the demographic dependency ratio. The article emphasizes that the model is not a real political program.