Gulf states pay the price as shipping crisis exposes costly dependence on the Strait of Hormuz

Gulf states have spent five months flying in food and household goods after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed to commercial shipping since March, driving up costs and inflation. The closure followed a war, with Iranian officials saying talks with Oman on a new shipping lane were nearly complete. Maersk added emergency surcharges on Gulf cargo, and other carriers followed. Qatar lost about 17% of its natural gas export capacity when Iranian missiles struck Ras Laffan in March. Oxford Economics raised 2026 inflation forecasts for all six GCC countries, with Bahrain up to 2.1%. Experts say the crisis highlights dependence on the strait and argues for alternative routes like IMEC.

Gulf states that normally receive food and household goods by sea have spent five months flying them in, and the cost is showing up in what residents pay. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil and gas passed before the war, has been effectively closed to commercial shipping since March. Iranian officials said on Saturday that talks with Oman on a new shipping lane were nearly complete, but warned a deal would not completely reopen the waterway. Experts say the crisis has hit basic goods harder than oil. Shon Hiatt of USC noted that Gulf nations like Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia rely on imports by boat, and flying in goods has caused inflation. Shipping companies like Maersk added emergency surcharges, and air freight cannot move grain or building materials at needed volumes. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said 15 of its ships had been hit by missiles and drones since the war began, killing one crew member and injuring 20. Qatar lost about 17% of its natural gas export capacity when Iranian missiles struck Ras Laffan in March. Oxford Economics raised 2026 inflation forecasts for all six GCC countries, with Bahrain up to 2.1%. Some cargo rerouted to ports outside the strait, like Sohar in Oman, which saw a 40% rise in ship calls. Experts say the crisis has made the case for alternative routes like IMEC, and Europe may gain as Asian buyers look elsewhere.