Future Israeli Fears
An elite analysis of future Israeli fears, focusing on six main axes: the military technological development of armed organizations, multiple sub-identities and social disintegration, the demographic shift in favor of Palestinians, the Iranian nuclear program, growing international isolation, and auxiliary indicators such as changes in Arab systems and growing American abandonment.
An elite analysis of future Israeli fears, based on monitoring Israeli elite literature. The analysis identifies six main agreed-upon fears: first, the military technological development of armed organizations in the region, which may reach weapons of mass destruction. Second, concern over multiple sub-identities in Israeli society and social disintegration at the expense of organic loyalty. Third, the demographic variable where the number of Palestinians exceeds the number of Jews in historical Palestine. Fourth, the Iranian nuclear program, which ranks first in the order of risks. Fifth, growing international isolation after the Al-Aqsa Flood. Sixth, auxiliary indicators such as changes in Arab systems and growing American abandonment. The analysis concludes with questions for the Israeli and Arab elite about strengthening or weakening these risks.