From Saltwater Intrusion to Evacuation: The Real Threat to Coastal Cities

A new study from Nanyang Technological University and Delft predicts sea level rise of up to 1.9 meters by 2100, nearly double the UN's highest estimate. The integrated model points to threats: more frequent storms, saltwater intrusion into aquifers, and destruction of coastal infrastructure, potentially requiring population evacuations.

A new study led by Dr. Benjamin Grandey from Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, in collaboration with researchers from NTU and Delft University of Technology, published in the journal 'Earth's Future', presents a concerning forecast: global sea levels could rise by about 1.9 meters by the end of this century. This figure is nearly double the current maximum UN estimate (3.3 feet). The new model combines physical models with expert consensus, providing a probability range of 1.6 to 6.2 feet by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario. Implications include increased frequency of storm surges, saltwater intrusion into aquifers and agricultural fields, and destruction of coastal wetlands. In extreme cases, managed retreat policies and evacuation of populations from low-lying areas may be necessary. The model aims to assist decision-makers in planning flood defenses and updating land-use regulations.