From Hamas disarmament to governance in Gaza, the five challenges of the new Gaza plan - analysis

Hamas agreed to a plan for implementing the next stages of Trump's Gaza peace initiative, potentially leading to disarmament, Israeli withdrawal, an International Stabilization Force, and governance by the NCAG. However, five major challenges threaten success: verifying disarmament, sequencing Israeli withdrawal, NCAG's ability to govern, the ISF's effectiveness, and regional political tensions. History shows agreements often lack 'trust but verify' aspects, and previous peace initiatives have failed.

Hamas has agreed to a plan for implementing the next stages of US President Donald Trump's Gaza peace initiative, a potentially significant diplomatic development. If implemented, the agreement could lead to Hamas relinquishing its weapons, an Israeli withdrawal from part of Gaza, the deployment of an International Stabilization Force, and the assumption of governance by the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG). However, history shows that agreements often lack a 'trust but verify' aspect, and there are at least five major challenges that will determine whether this plan succeeds or joins the long list of ambitious peace initiatives that did not live up to their goals. The most problematic obstacle could be verification: Hamas has spent decades building a terrorist arsenal, and it is unclear who will verify that weapons have actually been surrendered. The plan envisions an International Verification Committee, but inspections in conflict zones are difficult. The sequencing of Israeli withdrawal is also complicated, as disputes over sequencing have plagued previous agreements. The NCAG faces both administrative and political challenges in governing Gaza, as infrastructure is devastated and legitimacy is uncertain. The International Stabilization Force, expected to include personnel from Morocco, Kosovo, and Albania, will need a much stronger mandate than previous missions to prevent armed groups from re-emerging. Finally, the regional political environment is volatile, with the US facing a crisis with Iran and Israeli focus divided among multiple fronts. Any major regional crisis could derail implementation.