Food will become a luxury – a forecast of catastrophic price increases

Scientists warn that by mid-century, basic food items will become so expensive that hundreds of millions of people will have to spend half their income on them. A study based on GCAM modeling predicts that the poorest populations in developing countries, especially in Africa, will feel the impact of inflation the most.

Scientists are warning of a massive food crisis: by mid-century, basic food items will become so expensive that hundreds of millions of people will have to spend half their income on them. The study, published in Science Alert, is based on complex computer modeling using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), which covers 32 geopolitical regions. Jennifer Morris, a specialist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, notes that a situation where vital expenses consume half of a budget leads to social instability. The poorest populations in developing countries will feel the impact of inflation the most. By 2050, the poorest 10% of residents in Africa will be forced to spend about 50% of their personal income on food. In South Africa, the poorest citizens will spend 49.6% of their budget on food, while the richest will spend only 5.5%.