Five Months of War Didn't Stop Iran's Nuclear Program: 'Enough Material for 10 Bombs'

Despite heavy strikes, experts assess that Iran survived with significant nuclear capability. The stockpile of 60% enriched uranium in Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz was not destroyed and could suffice for ten bombs. US intelligence estimates the material remains accessible, and experts warn Iran could produce a bomb in under a year.

More than five months after the start of the war against Iran, experts and officials assess that the strikes significantly slowed Iran's nuclear program but did not destroy it. The central problem is uncertainty about the fate of the enriched uranium stockpile, as Tehran prevents IAEA inspectors from accessing sensitive sites. According to inspector estimates, Iran still holds uranium enriched to near weapons-grade level, enough for ten bombs after further processing. Most of the stockpile is stored in the Isfahan area, where the IAEA estimated in February about 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium. The complex was heavily damaged in June 2025, but the stockpile itself was likely not destroyed. Experts at the Institute for Science and International Security estimate 265-287 kg are buried in Isfahan, up to 80 kg in Fordow, and the rest in Natanz. US intelligence assesses that Iranians can still reach the stockpile in Isfahan through a narrow access point. In Natanz, the largest site, entrances to the underground plant were damaged in March, and nearby the "Mountain of the Pickaxe" was built—a new facility for centrifuge production at great depth, whose construction continued even after the strikes. Fordow, the most protected facility, was heavily damaged with 12 heavy bombs in June 2025, and may be out of commission. Experts warn that without additional pressure, Iran could quickly return to the path toward a bomb. James Acton of the Carnegie Endowment assesses they could produce a bomb in under a year. According to the Arms Control Association, with access to the stockpile and 100 advanced centrifuges, Iran could enrich enough for one bomb within weeks.