‘Fireworks show’ or intense strikes: US reconsiders strategy toward Tehran

Last week, US Central Command asked military analysts to propose ‘creative and unconventional ways to pressure and punish Iran’, CNN reported. The request signals a reassessment of strategy toward Tehran after weeks of strikes that failed to yield an agreement. Options include showcase strikes, heavy bombing, or deploying ground forces, with warnings about civilian casualties and dwindling interceptor stocks.

Last week, US Central Command reached out to a broad group of military analysts and asked them to propose ‘creative and unconventional ways to pressure and punish Iran’, CNN reported on Monday. The unusual request indicates that the US military is reassessing its strategy toward Tehran after weeks of strikes that failed to bring about an agreement or a change in Iran’s position. The request was sent before Trump threatened to resume strikes on Iran but backed off over the weekend following intervention by regional figures, including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who urged him to de-escalate tensions. According to the report, the request was sent by email by a senior intelligence officer at the command. A source familiar with the discussions said the command is now considering all options and recognizes the need to reassess strategy. According to two sources familiar with the planning, the US military is actively preparing to strike Mount Khachmosh and other sites in Iran suspected of housing nuclear materials or equipment related to the nuclear program. Trump is considering resuming heavy strikes on remaining nuclear facilities, even though he claimed they were ‘completely destroyed’ in strikes last summer. However, US officials assess that even the most powerful conventional weapons would not suffice to destroy facilities buried deep underground. One option under consideration is conducting broad showcase strikes, described as a ‘fireworks show’, against sites already struck before. Their purpose would be to give Trump a symbolic achievement that would allow him to end the war, even without achieving one of its original goals—eliminating Iran’s nuclear program. A source said Trump ultimately wants to reach a deal, so he is looking for ways to ‘show toughness and exit the war’. The CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency have also recently assessed that strikes are unlikely to change Iran’s position in negotiations. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, publicly admitted that airstrikes alone will not achieve all war goals. Central Command has also developed a plan for heavy bombing over one to two weeks aimed at degrading Iran’s missile capabilities. Additional military assets and forces have been moved to the region, but the president has so far refrained from giving the green light, partly due to warnings about dwindling interceptor stocks. Officials warned of a high number of civilian casualties in case of infrastructure strikes. Another option is deploying US forces on the ground, including to seize Kharg Island or remove enriched uranium, but such a step would contradict Trump’s campaign promise.