Fewer young people are registering for US campuses - but competition is not getting easier

The number of students in the US is expected to drop by 13% by 2041 due to declining birth rates, but competition for places at desirable institutions is not decreasing. Applicants submit more applications on average, and leading institutions are becoming more competitive, while others are becoming less accessible.

The number of students in the US is expected to drop by 13% by 2041, following a decline in the number of 18-year-olds in the US due to lower birth rates. However, contrary to expectations, the decrease in young people will not necessarily ease admission chances at desirable institutions. The reason is a trend of applicants moving to institutions perceived as higher quality, making the most sought-after institutions even more competitive. At the same time, growing skepticism about the value of an academic degree leads families to seek a degree that will pay off and lead to a good job. Large, leading public institutions, like the University of Michigan, benefit from prestige and attract students, while regional institutions or those with less selective admission criteria become more accessible. Additionally, teenagers submit applications to a larger number of institutions to spread risk: according to the Common App report for 2024-2025, students now submit an average of nearly seven applications each, a 46% increase compared to the 2015-2016 academic year.