Everyone Laughs at Trump and Misses the Hidden Move — Analysis

Dr. Liraz Margalit, in an article for ynet, argues that Trump's actions toward Iran, which appear chaotic, actually follow a minimax strategy—minimizing damage ahead of the midterm elections. Trump balances three incompatible goals: deterring Iran, avoiding war, and lowering oil prices. His threats and canceled strikes are signals to different audiences. The war has cost the US $37.5 billion, and the approaching elections become a key factor.

Dr. Liraz Margalit, in an article for ynet, offers a reinterpretation of Donald Trump's actions toward Iran. Critics see chaos: threats of strikes, canceled operations, announcements of deals that Iran denies. However, the author sees a consistent minimax strategy—choosing not maximum gain but minimum damage. Trump is caught between three goals: demonstrating deterrence against Iran, avoiding a protracted war, and achieving the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to lower oil prices before the November elections. These goals contradict each other. A real attack would raise prices, an agreement would look like a concession, and inaction would leave the strait closed. Therefore, Trump balances: he threatens to show toughness and backs off when prices rise. This week, oil prices fell by more than 5% after the announcement of negotiations. The war has cost the US at least $37.5 billion and is unpopular. Trump's goal is not victory but buying time until the elections. The strategy's vulnerability is its dependence on Iran's reaction, which can refute statements.