Erdogan’s rivalry with Israel has a new front: Africa - opinion

Turkey's deepening ties with South Africa, including joining its ICJ genocide case against Israel, are part of a broader two-decade African strategy involving diplomacy, capacity-building, and defense exports. Ankara's model, seen fully in Somalia, combines military training, arms sales, and economic investment, now clashing with Israel's recognition of Somaliland. The article argues this coordinated architecture, not mere trade, drives Turkey's Africa policy.

Turkey's rivalry with Israel has expanded to Africa, driven by a coordinated strategy that goes beyond trade. Ankara joined South Africa's ICJ genocide case against Israel in 2026, deepening legal coordination. This is part of a two-decade African buildup: embassy count grew from 12 to 44, trade from $5.4 billion to $41 billion, and Turkish Airlines serves 40 countries. The model uses diplomacy first, then capacity-building (military academies, health infrastructure, scholarships for tens of thousands of African students), then defense exports. Baykar's drone exports reached $1.8 billion in 2024, arming 18 African militaries. SADAT, a private military contractor, operates in nine countries, recruiting Syrian mercenaries. Somalia is the proof of concept: TURKSOM base has trained 16,000 Somali troops, with Turkish troop numbers doubling to 800. Ankara is preparing offshore energy drilling in Somali waters, while Israel recognized Somaliland, creating a direct clash. The article argues South Africa serves as a prestigious validator for a strategy built on drones, mercenaries, and classrooms.