Elimination of Ali Khamenei was a military success - but now there is a strategic problem | Prof. Amatzia Baram
Prof. Amatzia Baram argues that the elimination of Ali Khamenei in February 2026 was an impressive military achievement, but now constitutes a serious strategic problem for Israel and the US. He warns that the Iranian regime survived, the radical Revolutionary Guards seized power, and the chance of a popular uprising or overthrow of the system is low. Baram calls for tightening the economic blockade instead of an all-out war.
Prof. Amatzia Baram, an expert in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Haifa, analyzes in an opinion piece the strategic implications of the elimination of Ali Khamenei. He states that from a military standpoint, the elimination on February 28, 2026 was a stunning success for the Israeli Air Force and intelligence, causing heavy damage to the Iranian war machine and enhancing deterrence. However, from a long-term strategic interest perspective, the picture is problematic. Baram argues that it was known that the Revolutionary Guards were waiting for Khamenei's death to seize power, and that they are more extreme than him. He notes that Khamenei restrained the Guards, prevented them from blocking the Strait of Hormuz during the 12-day war, and led to political flexibility. Now, after the elimination, it will be harder to prevent the Guards from racing for a nuclear weapon. Baram rejects an all-out war that would destroy civilian infrastructure in Iran, as it would harm regime opponents and lead to a global energy crisis. He recommends tightening the economic blockade and blocking Iranian financial assets, while giving time to pragmatic elements like President Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Qalibaf to moderate the Guards. The article reflects a critical stance toward Israeli decision-making.