Elections in Israel at the center of concern in Lebanon: Netanyahu planning a new move?

A report in Lebanese media reveals concerns in the country about possible Israeli actions ahead of the elections in Israel, especially around the Ali al-Taher hill. A Lebanese military expert assesses that the likelihood of another round of escalation is high, but lower than that of an all-out war. The disputes concern Israeli withdrawal, the deployment of the Lebanese army, and Hezbollah's weapons.

A report in Lebanese media, cited by the website 'Al-Nashra', indicates that the upcoming elections in Israel are at the center of concern in Lebanon. According to the report, there is fear that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will take military actions in southern Lebanon to influence the election campaign. The main focus of concern is the Ali al-Taher hill, located north of the Litani River and overlooking vast areas in southern Lebanon, including Nabatieh, Kfar Tebnine, Iqlim al-Tuffah, and Jabal al-Rihan. According to the report, the Israeli Air Force has recently attacked the area several times. Military and strategic expert Baha al-Din Khalil assessed that the likelihood of another round of escalation is higher than the possibility of an immediate deterioration into an all-out war. According to him, the Ali al-Taher hill could become the central 'test point' between the sides. Khalil estimated the probability of an all-out war at 25%-30%, while the more likely scenario, in his assessment, is a limited Israeli operation in the Ali al-Taher area – a scenario to which he assigned a probability of 50%-60%. Such an operation could include significant airstrikes followed by an attempt to seize control points and crossings in the area, aiming to gain an advantage ahead of the renewal of diplomatic talks. The fear of escalation also comes against the backdrop of difficulties in the diplomatic talks between Israel and Lebanon mediated by the US. The main disputes concern the mechanism of Israeli withdrawal, the deployment of the Lebanese army, and the issue of Hezbollah's weapons. A round of talks held in Rome in early August ended without a significant breakthrough. Khalil assessed that Hezbollah's response would depend on the scale of the Israeli operation, and that the organization would not rush to launch widespread fire into the depths of Israel, as such a step could turn a local confrontation into a broad war.