Editor's Notes: The argument splitting religious-Zionist households before Israel’s election

Gilad Erdan is expected to launch a new party, with Yuli Edelstein on the list. Ayelet Shaked joined Benny Gantz. Yoaz Hendel and Chili Tropper are building a left-leaning list, possibly behind Gadi Eisenkot. Ofer Winter prepares a run on the right. The undecided pool is shrinking: 16.5% in May, down from 26% in December 2024. Among them, 51.7% want a broad coalition, 17.6% a narrow one. They prioritize cost of living, war, security, draft equality, and October 7 inquiry. Polls are contradictory: Kan gave Erdan 5 seats, Channel 12 got 2.8%. Channel 12 puts cross-bloc movement at 1.3%.

Before Israel's elections, religious-Zionist voters are being pulled between Likud offshoots and other parties. Gilad Erdan, after 30 years in Likud and four as UN ambassador, is expected to launch his own party next week, with Yuli Edelstein on the list. Ayelet Shaked, former justice minister, has joined Benny Gantz. Yoaz Hendel and Chili Tropper are building a left-leaning list, possibly behind Gadi Eisenkot. Ofer Winter, former Givati Brigade commander, is preparing a run on the right. All are chasing the same voters: Israelis on the Right with nowhere to go. The author argues this claim is half true. He illustrates with a couple in Gush Etzion: she supports Smotrich but opposes the conscription bill; he wants sanctions on haredim and is considering voting for Hendel or Eisenkot. Tachlit Institute data shows the undecided pool is shrinking: 16.5% in May, down from 26% in December 2024. Among them, 51.7% want a broad coalition, 17.6% a narrow one. They prioritize cost of living, war, security, draft equality, and October 7 inquiry. Polls are contradictory: Kan gave Erdan 5 seats, Channel 12 got 2.8%. Channel 12 puts cross-bloc movement at 1.3%. The author notes none of the new party leaders have said whether they would recommend Netanyahu to the president.