Economic pressure can buy Israel time. Mistaking it for a strategy would squander it - opinion

An opinion piece argues that an economic blockade on Iran can buy Israel time but is not a strategy to topple the regime. The author contends that authoritarian regimes often survive economic hardship, citing examples like Saddam Hussein and Bashar al-Assad. He warns that a blockade has a political expiration date and that Iran could gain leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. He advocates a comprehensive strategy to erode the regime's political foundations.

In this opinion piece, Seth D. Kaplan argues that while an economic blockade on Iran could impose real costs and make Israel safer, it is not a strategy to topple the regime. He warns that Israel risks repeating a mistake: earlier assessments suggested military setbacks might trigger unrest, and now attention has shifted to a blockade, but both rest on the assumption that enough pressure will cause collapse. History shows authoritarian regimes often survive economic hardship, as seen with Saddam Hussein, Bashar al-Assad, Cuba, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela. Kaplan notes that Iran has become a 'survival economy' structured to endure prolonged pressure. He argues that a blockade has a political expiration date due to the enormous American military commitment required and pressure from allies. If the regime survives, Iran could gain leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. Kaplan advocates a comprehensive strategy to erode the regime's political foundations, including supporting democratic opposition, widening fractures within the IRGC, information campaigns, and precise economic pressure. He emphasizes that these efforts should be indirect and discreet to maintain credibility inside Iran.