Drone strikes, intelligence chief’s killing expose Libya’s fragile balance - analysis

Unclaimed drone strikes on energy facilities in western Libya and the assassination of a senior intelligence official in the east have renewed fears of instability. Maj.-Gen. Fawzi al-Mansouri was killed in Benghazi on August 10. Drone attacks on Zawiya oil complex and electricity substation caused fires and outages. No group claimed responsibility. The violence coincides with US efforts to reunify Libya's rival institutions.

Unclaimed drone strikes on energy facilities in western Libya and the assassination of a senior intelligence official in the east have renewed fears of instability as Libyan factions maneuver ahead of possible political negotiations. No evidence has emerged connecting the two sets of events, and no group has claimed responsibility for either. Their timing has nonetheless raised questions about whether Libya faces another brief outbreak of violence or a broader contest for influence. Maj.-Gen. Fawzi al-Mansouri, head of military intelligence for Khalifa Haftar's eastern-based forces, was killed in Benghazi on Monday night, August 10, when an explosive device detonated at his vehicle in the Hawari district, according to security officials and the eastern General Command. Al-Mansouri was buried the following day at a funeral attended by senior military figures, including Saddam Haftar, one of Khalifa Haftar's sons. A security committee has opened an investigation, but authorities have not publicly identified a suspect or motive. Hundreds of kilometers to the west, drone strikes began targeting facilities in Zawiya on August 9. The following night, a drone hit a gasoline-storage tank at the Zawiya oil complex, west of Tripoli, causing a major fire and the tank's collapse. The tank held approximately 4.5 million liters of gasoline when it was struck, according to Libya's National Oil Corporation. Further attacks continued into August 11. Another drone struck the South Zawiya electricity substation on August 12, setting it ablaze and causing widespread outages. Libya's state-run General Electricity Company said more than 700 megawatts of the nearby power plant's 1,300-megawatt capacity remained unavailable. US energy company GE suspended work at the power station and withdrew its technical teams. The attackers and their objectives remain unknown. Zawiya is divided among armed groups with shifting alliances, and tensions have grown between Dbeibah's government and forces associated with Mohamed Bahroun, a powerful commander in the city. Libya has been divided between rival centers of authority for more than a decade. The latest violence comes as Libyan leaders and foreign governments seek arrangements that could narrow the east-west divide. Misbah Omar, a Libya-based analyst, said the attacks could be part of a larger contest, although no wider pattern has yet been established. The violence coincides with renewed US efforts to encourage cooperation between Libya's rival authorities, with Massad Boulos promoting an initiative focused on institutional reunification and economic cooperation.