Divisions within Likud: Battle for Netanyahu's Succession Begins

A new Israeli poll reveals the early start of a battle over Netanyahu's succession within Likud, with Amir Ohana leading among party officials at 22.9%, and Nir Barkat leading among voters at 19%, while veterans like Amsalem, Zohar, and Bitan see their chances decline.

A new Israeli opinion poll conducted by the Agam Institute and published by the Hebrew newspaper Maariv has revealed the early start of a battle over the succession of occupation Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu within the Likud party, coinciding with preparations for the party's primaries. The poll showed that only about 20 members and ministers out of the current 40 Likud representatives in the Knesset would manage to keep their seats if the party wins 30 seats in the next elections, a result that exceeds current expectations. The results showed a decline in the chances of several veterans, including David Amsalem, Miki Zohar, and David Bitan, against the rise of new names in the primary race, with the pollsters emphasizing that the results do not fully account for the strength of organized voting within the party. The poll highlighted a division within Likud over the identity of Netanyahu's successor; Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana led the preferences of party officials and activists with 22.9%, while Economy Minister Nir Barkat topped the preferences of Likud voters with 19%. The poll also showed that Ohana enjoys strong support within party circles, while Barkat has greater support among undecided and dissident voters, indicating a clear difference between the party leadership and its electoral base regarding the post-Netanyahu era. Regarding the shape of the next government, the results showed that 66.1% of officials and activists in current parties prefer forming a right-wing government, compared to 45.1% among Likud voters. In contrast, 54.9% of Likud voters supported forming a national unity government including center-right forces, compared to 33.9% of current party officials. The poll suggests this gap may reflect a shift in the Likud base's orientation, and may make the upcoming primaries an important arena for reshaping the party's leadership and political map in the post-Netanyahu era. The poll also showed that a majority in both camps support increasing conscription rates in the occupation army, even at the expense of Torah study and the coalition crisis, with 66.8% among officials and activists and 80.4% among Likud voters.