Civil war and the Iranian bomb: what Israelis fear most

The INSS presented a survey of Israelis on the main threats: civil war and a nuclear Iran each scored 39% as key threats. A massive rocket attack — 35%, erosion of democracy — 31%. The most destructive scenario was civil war (69%), and the most likely — a rocket attack (61%).

The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) released on July 27, 2026, the results of a survey of Israelis on threat perception. According to the July survey, 39% of respondents named civil war and Iran obtaining nuclear weapons as the two main threats for the next five years. In February 2026, the internal conflict led with 42%, and the Iranian threat with 40%. In third place is a massive rocket attack on the home front (35% in July, 38% in February). Next come erosion of democracy (31%), a protracted war on one front (27%), loss of US support (22%), and a decline in economic productivity due to demographic changes (12%, up from 4% in February). Israelis consider a rocket attack the most likely scenario (61%), followed by a protracted war (59%) and internal conflict (54%). The most destructive are civil war (69%), erosion of democracy (68%), and a nuclear Iran with loss of US support (67% each). The survey was conducted among Israeli citizens in February and July 2026.