Chance for Ukraine-Russia talks in a year - EU has a plan
France, Germany and Britain are coordinating to maintain influence over possible peace talks on Ukraine and prevent key decisions from being made without Europe. The three countries fear the US may try to determine settlement terms on its own. European diplomats see no signs of Putin's readiness for serious steps. Escalation of hostilities and possible mobilization in Russia are predicted. London, Paris and Berlin consider themselves key in the 'coalition of the willing' and discuss security guarantees for Ukraine. Several Baltic states and Hungary doubt the right of France and Germany to speak for all of Europe.
France, Germany and Britain are coordinating their actions to maintain influence over possible peace talks on Ukraine and prevent key decisions from being made without Europe's participation. The three countries fear that the United States may try to determine the terms of a future settlement on its own. This is reported by The New York Times. According to the newspaper, Paris, Berlin and London are already developing their own strategy in case the negotiation process begins. At the same time, European diplomats and analysts do not yet see convincing signs that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to take serious steps to end the war in the near future. The main work on forming a common position is currently being done by France and Germany. Britain is also participating in these efforts, but its position remains more cautious. One reason is London's desire not to strain relations with the Trump administration. In Europe, they believe that the Ukrainian issue and further relations with Russia are too important to be left entirely to Washington's discretion. European governments seek to avoid a situation where the US and Russia can agree on settlement terms without consulting European states. Forecasts for the further development of the war: according to Western officials and analysts, hostilities could become even more severe. It is assumed that Vladimir Putin will continue to intensify strikes on Ukrainian military facilities and civilian infrastructure. Experts do not rule out the possibility of a new limited mobilization in Russia. Some Western officials believe Moscow may postpone such a decision until after the parliamentary elections scheduled for mid-September. An even more alarming scenario is linked to a possible expansion of the conflict. Some analysts suggest that the Russian leadership, under pressure, may try to raise the stakes and test NATO countries' readiness to act together. This concerns not only military actions but also possible intensification of hybrid attacks in Europe. Earlier, Putin stated the need to establish full Russian control over Donbas. According to a number of Western officials and analysts, it is the development of the situation in this direction that could significantly influence the prospects for future talks. If Russian troops fail to achieve their goal in the foreseeable future, the likelihood of a diplomatic process may increase. Therefore, European states seek to determine their own position and possible conditions for participation in negotiations in advance. Who can represent Europe at the talks: France, Germany and Britain believe that they should play a key role in negotiations related to supporting Ukraine. As three European officials reported, these countries are at the center of the so-called coalition of the willing, which provides Kyiv with political and military support. In addition, London, Paris and Berlin are already considering various options for future military and other security guarantees for Ukraine after a possible end to the war. However, this balance of power does not suit all Europeans. Some states, primarily those located in close proximity to Russia and Ukraine, are cautious about France and Germany speaking on behalf of all of Europe. In particular, certain doubts remain among a number of Baltic states and Hungary. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, in turn, stated that the cooperation of the three states is carried out directly at the request of Ukraine. According to him, Britain, Germany and France interact closely because they are among the largest European countries and provide Kyiv with significant military support. Recall that earlier "Kursor" wrote, citing experts, that the war against Ukraine has become for Russia not only a military but also a large-scale geopolitical defeat. The Kremlin is rapidly losing influence beyond its borders, and its former image as a "security guarantor" for allies has been effectively destroyed.