Battle for Survival: Favorites and Outsiders in the Likud Primaries

Likud is gearing up for the most dramatic primaries in the party's history, set for August 17. The focus is on a heavyweight clash for the top spots on the list, the ambitions of newcomers, and the fight for the title of the most influential woman in the party. Ynet political commentator Moran Azulai analyzes the situation as of August 13. Candidates vying for a spot in the top five include Amir Ohana, Eli Cohen, Yariv Levin, and Miri Regev, the most influential female minister in the party. If we subtract the reserved slots for Netanyahu (positions 3, 5, 9, 11, 15, 18, 26, and 29), there are 15 real spots for men (assuming the party gets at least 30 mandates) and 3 for women. Today, 36 Likud officials are represented in the government and Knesset, of whom 8 are women. Among the heavyweights are ministers Eli Cohen, Yariv Levin, Nir Barkat, Yoav Kish, Miki Zohar, Shlomo Karhi, Avi Dichter, Amichai Shikli, Dudi Amsalem, Miri Regev, Gila Gamliel, May Golan, and Idit Silman, as well as Speaker Amir Ohana and coalition chairman Ofir Katz. Notable MKs include Tali Gottlieb, who relies on independent activists and causes concern in the party leadership; Almog Cohen, who has Netanyahu's support; Avichai Boaron, nominated to head the campaign headquarters; Hanoch Milvitsky, who controls a group of 800 activists in Petah Tikva; Moshe Saada, Katy Shitrit, David Bitan (almost 2,000 voters in Rishon LeZion), Sasson Gueta, Amit Halevi, Boaz Bismut, Osher Shkalim, Ariel Kellner, Eli Dallal, Eliyahu Revivo, and others. Among women, Gila Gamliel, Tali Gottlieb, Eti Atiya, Katy Shitrit, Idit Silman, May Golan, and Tseia Melaku are competing for a place in the elite club. Likud guarantees 3 real women's spots: 10, 20, and 25. The first two will almost certainly go to Regev and Gottlieb, and a real battle is expected for the 25th. Netanyahu fears that officials left off the list may blame him for the failure and stage a rebellion. The primaries will take place on August 17, with 142,000 people eligible to vote.