After Kushner's meetings.. fragile calm and a suspended future

An analysis of the recent movements of US envoy Jared Kushner between Cairo and Tel Aviv, and the implications that go beyond traditional diplomatic contacts. The article addresses potential scenarios for the next phase in the Gaza Strip, favoring the scenario of fragile calm interspersed with Israeli operations, and links Gaza's future to the Trump administration's ability to impose its vision and to Israeli electoral calculations.

An analysis of the recent movements of US envoy Jared Kushner between Cairo and Tel Aviv, and the implications that go beyond the limits of traditional diplomatic contacts. The article indicates that Washington is determined to push the roadmap for the Gaza Strip toward implementation, despite the continuation of fundamental disagreements between Israel and Hamas, foremost among them the arrangement of steps for the Israeli withdrawal and disarmament. The writer favors the most realistic scenario, which is a fragile calm interspersed with strikes or Israeli security operations, and which does not necessarily mean the end of targeting. He links Gaza's future to the ability of US President Donald Trump's administration to impose its vision, and not only to the ability of mediators to bring viewpoints closer. The article highlights the issue of Israeli elections, where it is difficult to separate the political and security behavior of Benjamin Netanyahu's government from internal calculations, and he may become more careful to appear as a man who imposes security conditions and does not make free concessions. It warns of a scenario of attempting to carry out security operations or targeted assassinations in Gaza before the elections to improve the government's image. The article concludes that the next phase may be transitional between war and de-escalation, and that calm does not mean safety, calling for readiness for all possibilities and not merely waiting for the results of Kushner's meetings.