Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
656 forecasts
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At least one additional Israeli municipality will face a public dispute over banning a party from a public building before election day, extending the Herzliya pattern.
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At least one additional party currently polling near the 3.25% threshold will publicly confirm it is running through election day rather than withdrawing, before October 27.
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Likud's internal tensions over vote cannibalization will intensify, with at least one more public accusation from a right-wing splinter party leader against Likud campaign tactics before October 27.
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The defamation lawsuit filed by Netanyahu against Yoav Horowitz will not be withdrawn or settled before the October 27 election, remaining an active legal proceeding through election day.
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The opposition change bloc will not issue a joint declaration before October 27, given the rejection of Forer's proposal and the ongoing distrust between Eisenkot and Lieberman.
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By the October 27 election, at least one further Israeli party or candidate will issue a formal legal demand over an AI-generated or manipulated campaign video, extending the Golan-Gantz and Eisenkot-Likud pattern into a series rather than two isolated cases.
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Ofer Winter will not withdraw from the Knesset election race within 7 days, despite Netanyahu's pressure and his party polling below the threshold.
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The Ukrainian government will issue a formal public statement either confirming or denying the energy ceasefire with Russia within 7 days. Reference class: Ukrainian official denials of uncoordinated ceasefire announcements (2022-2026); base rate ~70% for a clarifying statement within 7 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the Financial Times report already signaling denial.
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The call by bereaved mother Galia Hoshin to boycott the 'national memorial ceremony' will be echoed by at least one additional bereaved family forum within 7 days.
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The right-wing bloc's seat count in published polls will not exceed 66 mandates within 30 days, given the current fragmentation and the left-wing bloc's floor of 44. Reference class: Right-wing bloc polling in election campaigns (2019-2026); base rate ~55% for staying below 66. Confidence adjusted up due to the ceiling imposed by the left-wing bloc's stable floor.
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Likud will not gain more than 1 additional seat from the 'October surprise' campaign within 30 days, as the 2-3 seat estimate is optimistic given the current 8% undecided voter pool.
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Netanyahu's UN attack on Mamdani will not lead to a formal apology or retraction from the Prime Minister's Office within 30 days. Reference class: Israeli PM responses to criticism from US Jewish leaders (2015-2025); base rate ~20% for apology/retraction. Confidence adjusted up due to the current political climate and Netanyahu's consistent refusal to back down from such attacks.
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Erdogan's statement of no hostility toward Israelis will not be followed by a public meeting or phone call between Turkish and Israeli officials within 30 days, given the current diplomatic freeze.
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The state will not fully comply with the High Court ruling on draft dodger arrests by the October 15 deadline, and will instead request an extension or present partial data. Reference class: Israeli government compliance with High Court rulings on Haredi conscription (2017-2025); base rate ~30% for full compliance. Confidence adjusted up due to the explicit admission by law enforcement of being 'deterred by Haredi protests'.
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The Brooklyn rabbi attack will be reclassified as a hate crime by NYPD within 30 days, following public pressure and the same-day Crown Heights incident. Reference class: NYC hate crime reclassifications (2015-2025); base rate ~35% for reclassification within 30 days of initial non-hate classification. Confidence adjusted up due to the suspect's prior arrests and the concurrent antisemitic incident.
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The Lavrov-Rubio meeting will not lead to any announced agreement on Ukraine within 30 days, as the fundamental positions of both sides remain unchanged. Reference class: US-Russia meetings on Ukraine since 2022; base rate ~10% for any agreement. Confidence adjusted up due to the lack of prior progress.
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The 2.5 to 3 million Israelis with post-traumatic symptoms will not see a significant increase in publicly funded mental health services within 30 days, despite Gal Gadot's private donation.
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The Central Elections Committee will disqualify at least one candidate or list within 30 days, as the ten petitions filed create pressure for a decision. Reference class: Israeli CEC disqualification rulings in election cycles (2019-2025); base rate ~60% for at least one disqualification. Confidence adjusted up due to the high number of petitions and the focus on Ra'am and Balad. Expected indicators: confirming: CEC announces disqualification of a candidate or list within 30 days; falsifying: CEC rejects all petitions within 30 days.
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Netanyahu will intensify personal attacks on Liberman over the next 30 days, as the Polymarket gap widens and he seeks to consolidate right-wing voters.
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The IDF will demolish the home of terrorist Kadri Samara in Bidu within 7 days, following the completed mapping of the home. Reference class: IDF home demolitions for attackers who killed an Israeli civilian (2020-2025); base rate ~85% within 7 days of mapping. Confidence adjusted down due to potential legal challenges or operational delays.
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At least one additional Latin American government will adopt the term 'genocide' to describe Israeli actions in Gaza within 30 days, following the Broad Front's lead in Uruguay.
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Indonesia will not announce any formal normalization steps with Israel within 30 days, as President Prabowo's pro-Palestinian speech signals a shift away from previous signals. Reference class: Indonesian government announcements on Israel normalization (2020-2026); base rate ~20% for a formal step within 30 days of a pro-Palestinian speech. Confidence adjusted up due to the strength of the 'Free Palestine' declaration.
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Ben Gvir's public complaint about Netanyahu not answering his calls will lead to at least one additional coalition MK publicly expressing frustration with the Prime Minister's communication style within 30 days.
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The Haifa Magistrate's Court will extend the remand of the Lahav 433 officer's relative at least once more within 30 days, as the investigation into the stabbing continues.
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The public confrontation between Shelly Mesch Yogev and Aharon Haliva will lead to at least one additional bereaved family publicly demanding a personal meeting with a former senior IDF officer within 30 days.
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The US will not announce a formal sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia within 30 days, despite the State Department approval, as congressional review and regional objections delay the final contract.
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The US will announce a new round of sanctions targeting Iranian financial networks within 30 days, as the Treasury's BitBank action signals a broader crackdown. Reference class: US sanctions rounds on Iran (2020-2025); base rate ~70% within 30 days of a prior sanctions action. Confidence adjusted down due to the possibility of diplomatic restraint ahead of UNGA.
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The public campaign by Barak Bar's parents for mandatory cognitive testing of elderly drivers will gain at least one Knesset sponsor within 30 days.
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Saudi Arabia will announce a formal request to China for mediation with the Houthis within 30 days, following its reported turn to Beijing for help curbing the group.
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The number of reported incidents involving heavy weapons (LAW missiles, RPGs, anti-tank missiles) in criminal contexts in Israel will increase over the next 30 days, as the recent attacks in Jaljulia, Kafr Qasim, and Sajur indicate a pattern.
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Saudi Arabia will conduct at least one more airstrike in Taiz province within 30 days, as the Houthi advance near Bab al-Mandeb continues. Reference class: Saudi airstrikes in Taiz (2020-2025); base rate ~60% per month during active Houthi offensives. Confidence adjusted up due to the confirmed Houthi advance and Saudi airstrikes on the Al-Barah Bridge.
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The controversy over the release of Agam Tzarfati's footage will lead to a formal investigation by the Ministry of Justice or the Knesset Internal Affairs Committee within 30 days.
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Public attacks by coalition MKs on Supreme Court President Yitzhak Amit will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional MK publicly labeling him a 'Kaplanist' or similar political epithet. Reference class: Knesset MK attacks on Supreme Court presidents (2015-2025); base rate ~30% for a new attack within 30 days of a previous one. Confidence adjusted up due to Rothman's explicit framing and the election campaign context.
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CENTCOM will announce at least one more engagement with IRGC naval forces in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.
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Public debate over the NAZA documentary will intensify, with at least one Knesset committee discussion on revoking the filmmakers' citizenship within 30 days. Reference class: Knesset committee discussions on citizenship revocation (2015-2025); base rate ~40% within 30 days of a minister's announcement. Confidence adjusted up due to Culture Minister Zohar's explicit threat.
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The controversy over the Givat Tidhar outpost will not lead to a formal evacuation order within 30 days, as the government is unlikely to enforce removals ahead of elections.
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Public criticism of the 7-year sentence for Soria Abu Arar will not lead to a formal appeal by the state within 30 days, as the prosecution's position is not yet clear. Reference class: state appeals of lenient sentences in fatal road accidents (2015-2025); base rate ~20% within 30 days of sentencing. Confidence adjusted up due to the absence of immediate prosecution statements.
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The EL GAIA tanker explosion in the Strait of Hormuz will not lead to a significant disruption in global oil shipping through the strait within 7 days, as the incident appears isolated.
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The Likud disqualification request against Ra'am will be rejected by the Central Elections Committee within 30 days.
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Police Commissioner Danny Levy will hold a placement discussion for additional officers within 30 days, despite Minister Ben Gvir's refusal to sign off on appointments until after the elections.
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The controversy surrounding the film 'BDA' will not lead to a formal IDF investigation or change in targeting protocols within 30 days, as the military rejects the claims. Reference class: IDF responses to critical soldier testimonies (2014-2025); base rate ~15% for a formal investigation within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the IDF's categorical rejection.
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Lebanese President Joseph Aoun will face increased political opposition from Hezbollah-aligned factions within 30 days, following his visit to Nabatieh and call for state sovereignty.
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The IDF will not withdraw from the Ali Taher ridge in southern Lebanon within 30 days, maintaining its stated position to enforce presence. Reference class: Israeli military hold operations in southern Lebanon (2000-2025); base rate ~85% for holding ground for 30 days after a public statement. Confidence adjusted down due to potential US or Lebanese pressure. Reference class: Israeli military hold operations in southern Lebanon (2000-2025); base rate ~85% for holding ground for 30 days after a public statement.
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The center-left bloc will not produce a unified list that passes the electoral threshold within 30 days, as personal rivalries and failed merger attempts persist.
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The upcoming Washington meeting between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors will produce a joint statement or framework for further talks, but will not result in a substantive ceasefire or disarmament agreement within 30 days.
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The Phuket Chabad House will not host any large-scale public Israeli holiday events for the remainder of the High Holy Days, as security concerns and local protest momentum persist.
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Public tensions within the Change Bloc between Lapid and Eisenkot will become more visible in media reports over the next 30 days. Reference class: Israeli coalition internal conflicts in election campaigns (2015-2025); base rate ~60% for public leaks within 30 days of a vote. Confidence adjusted up due to the reported covert premiership battle.
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The IDF will conduct at least one additional surprise drill in a different division within 30 days, following the pattern of the Judea and Samaria drill and the recent General Staff exercise Dawn 2.0.
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The Houthis will consolidate control over at least one additional Red Sea port city within 90 days, leveraging Iranian arms and the absence of direct US strikes. Reference class: Houthi territorial gains in Red Sea coastal areas since 2021; base rate ~70% for a new port capture per year. Confidence adjusted down because Trump's refusal may push Saudi Arabia toward alternative deterrence measures.
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The controversy surrounding teacher Miriam Abu Bakr at Shirat Yam school will not lead to a formal Ministry of Education investigation or policy change within 30 days, as the issue remains localized.