Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
340 forecasts
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Iran will not carry out any overt military action to block Gulf oil exports within 90 days, despite Rezai's threat.
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The US-Iran 'talks' will remain unacknowledged by Iran over the next 30 days, with no official meeting between US and Iranian officials confirmed by either side.
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Reports of Iranian oil exports via Chinese entities like Hengli Group will face increased scrutiny in Western media over the next 90 days, with at least three new investigative pieces or official sanctions actions targeting such trade.
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The US will resume strikes on Iranian targets within 30 days if the ceasefire expires without a new agreement.
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US-Israel intelligence friction over Iran will surface publicly, with at least one official or leaked report questioning Israeli credibility on Iranian threats within 90 days.
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Iran will publicly reiterate or expand its conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz in at least one official statement or interview within 90 days.
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The IDF will face increased public and political pressure over West Bank outpost policy, with at least one new report or Knesset discussion on nationalist crime within 30 days.
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Over the next 30 days, at least one more fatal accident involving a child during summer vacation will be reported in Israeli media.
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Hamas will hand over fewer than 1,000 Kalashnikovs to international monitors within 30 days, far short of the 60-70 thousand estimated.
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The number of Israeli civilian border-crossing incidents into Lebanon will decline over the next 30 days as the IDF increases patrols and police enforcement.
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Over the next 30 days, the US will continue to reduce its military footprint in bases near Iran, with at least one additional public report of aircraft or personnel relocation.
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The number of seafarers stranded in the Strait of Hormuz will decrease by at least 20% over the next 90 days, as evacuation efforts continue or the strait partially reopens.
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NATO will publicly confirm enhanced air patrols over Poland within 7 days following the Russian missile incursion.
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Russia will launch a large-scale missile attack on Ukraine within 7 days, as warned by Zelensky and reported by Ukrainian sources.
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Within 90 days, the Houthis will announce or implement a fee for ships passing through Bab el-Mandeb, following discussions with Iran.
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Iran will not agree to joint management of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, maintaining its demand for majority control.
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The US will publicly endorse Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities within 30 days, following the Netanyahu-Trump meeting.
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The number of social workers participating in protest actions will increase over the next 30 days, following the warning that 7,400 specialists are at risk of protesting.
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Ben Gvir will publicly demand a specific senior ministry (e.g., Defense or Public Security) as a condition for Otzma Yehudit joining the next coalition within 30 days.
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The High Court of Justice will issue a ruling partially invalidating the amendment that freezes arrests of yeshiva students within 30 days.
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The US will impose new sanctions on Iranian state media outlets Mehr and Tasnim within 30 days in response to the threats against Melania Trump.
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Iran-aligned militias in Iraq will launch at least one more drone or missile attack against Saudi Arabia within 30 days.
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The Israeli government will announce a plan to establish a state-run correspondent bank within 30 days to prevent disruption of PA transfers.
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The number of serious traffic accidents involving electric bicycles and scooters will be reported at a higher frequency in Israeli media over the next 30 days, following the deaths of Omer Shadi Azzam and Muad Bahash.
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The IDF will announce a reduction in counterterrorism battalion strength in the West Bank within 30 days due to diversion to outpost enforcement.
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The IDF will publicly acknowledge at least one incident of reservists using physical force against Jewish settlers in Judea and Samaria within 30 days.
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The Adams-Pahlavi meeting will be followed by at least one public statement of support from a major Israeli political figure within 30 days.
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The Shin Bet will officially join the investigation into Haymanot Kasau's disappearance within 30 days.
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The politicization of Mahash will lead to at least one public statement from a senior police or legal figure criticizing the law within 30 days.
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The number of antisemitic online incidents targeting Jewish public figures will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reports in Israeli media.
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Iranian oil revenues will continue to flow despite the US naval blockade, with at least one new report of a tanker breaching the blockade within 30 days.
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Arad Mayor Yair Maayan's call for police enforcement against Haredi extremists will lead to at least one publicized arrest within 30 days.
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The Interior Ministry will not change its age-restriction policy for Righteous Among the Nations descendants within 30 days, despite the January 2026 court ruling.
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The proposed London summit on the Strait of Hormuz will convene within 30 days, with participation from at least 20 of the 40 invited countries.
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The US will announce a new military deployment to the Persian Gulf within 30 days in response to Iranian threats.
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Likud will continue to lose seats in upcoming polls over the next 30 days, falling below 20 seats.
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The Tel Aviv Labor Court ruling on unpaid family work will be cited in at least one new labor lawsuit within 30 days.
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The number of grenade attacks linked to the Jarushi-Mosly crime family conflict will increase within 30 days.
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The IDF will expand its operation in Judea and Samaria beyond current reinforcement within 30 days, despite Chief of Staff Zamir's earlier opposition.
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The number of settler attacks on Palestinian villages in Samaria will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reports in major Israeli media.
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Arnon Bar-David will face a formal no-confidence motion within the Histadrut within 30 days.
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The security cabinet will authorize a new operational directive targeting Iranian proxy cells in the West Bank within 30 days.
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Brent crude oil will remain above $95 per barrel for at least 15 of the next 30 trading days.
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The Temple Mount status quo will be reaffirmed by a public statement from the Prime Minister's Office or the Defense Ministry within 30 days, following today's right-wing ascension.
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The US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement signed tonight will face at least one formal objection from a European ally within 30 days.
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The release of a minor suspect's identity in the Binyahu Razi murder will lead to at least one more court petition by a media outlet or NGO seeking to publish the name of a minor suspect in a violent crime within 30 days.
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The shekel will remain at or above NIS 3.05 per USD for at least the next 30 days.
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The Teachers' Union will not declare a new labor dispute within 30 days, as the current settlement holds.
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Jordan will expel at least one Iranian diplomat within 30 days in response to missile strikes on its territory.
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Meta will expand StoryKit availability beyond Mexico within 30 days.