Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
687 forecasts
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The State Comptroller's report on human trafficking will lead to at least one Knesset committee hearing dedicated to the issue within 90 days.
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Egyptian mediation efforts will intensify but fail to produce a ceasefire breakthrough within 30 days due to Hamas refusal to disarm.
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The gender segregation bill in academia will face increased opposition from university officials and student groups, leading to a delay in its second and third readings.
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The 'One Health' approach presented by Professor Sadetsky will be formally adopted in a Health Ministry directive within 90 days.
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The Health Ministry will expand enforcement operations against cosmetic chains using suspected carcinogens within 30 days.
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The labor dispute in nursing will lead to at least one limited strike day within 90 days, as negotiations fail to resolve the acute shortage of personnel.
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The low indictment rate for settler violence (6.6%) will be cited by human rights groups in international forums to push for sanctions or diplomatic measures against Israeli authorities.
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Coalition tensions over Haredi conscription and budgets will intensify, with at least one public ultimatum from Shas or Ya'adut HaTorah within 30 days.
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The bill to freeze additional funds to the Palestinian Authority will advance to a second reading within 30 days, but will face legal challenges.
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The discovery of Nirel Zini's remains will prompt renewed public pressure on the government to accelerate efforts to recover the remains of other fallen soldiers and hostages.
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The October 7 commemoration bill will pass into law within 90 days, but will face controversy over its scope and implementation.
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US-Iran military exchanges will continue with at least one more round of strikes within 7 days.
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Police will increase patrols in Haredi neighborhoods following the Bnei Brak attack, but no major prosecutions will be announced within 30 days.
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Iraq's deadline for militia disarmament will not be met, leading to increased tensions with the US.
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The teachers' union threat will lead to court proceedings within 30 days, but schools will open on time with a temporary compromise.
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The Sherman family incident will be cited by at least one Israeli politician or public figure in calls for greater social unity or against incitement within 30 days.
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The US revocation of the Iranian oil permit will lead to increased tensions in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, likely resulting in further attacks on commercial vessels.
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The State Comptroller's audit on prostitution law enforcement will lead to legislative proposals to reform the law within 90 days.
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The Irish ban on settlement imports will be followed by at least one other EU member state introducing similar legislation within 90 days.
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Emanuel's criticism of Netanyahu will be echoed by additional US Democratic figures, increasing pressure on the administration to condition aid.
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NATO summit will not agree to Trump's 5% GDP demand; final communiqué will reference a lower target or no specific number.
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Bar Kupershtein's public appeal will lead to at least one government or NGO initiative to support released hostage reintegration within 90 days.
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Beit Shemesh's bus lane project will face legal challenges from residents opposed to reduced car lanes within 30 days.
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The water dispute with Jordan will escalate diplomatically, with Jordan raising the issue at the UN or Arab League within 30 days.
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The EU will not impose trade restrictions on Judea and Samaria products within 30 days, but the proposal will generate diplomatic friction.
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Iran will not release the Foremans within 90 days, but the hunger strike will increase international pressure on Tehran.
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The national commission of inquiry into October 7 will face political obstacles that delay its formation beyond 90 days.
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The Shin Bet's involvement in fighting crime in the Arab sector will face legal challenges or delays from the Police Commissioner's opposition within 30 days.
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The government's defiance of the High Court on the Second Authority Council will lead to a formal petition to the High Court within 30 days, intensifying the constitutional crisis.
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The Histadrut-OPZZ memorandum will lead to at least one joint labor initiative or exchange program within 90 days.
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Israel-Azerbaijan relations will experience a cooling period with at least one public diplomatic incident within 90 days.
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Rom Breslavsky's claim about hostage conversions will be cited by right-wing media and politicians to argue against prisoner exchanges, but will not be independently corroborated within 30 days.
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US will not approve F-35 sale to Turkey within 30 days, but the issue will remain publicly contested.
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The IDF will proceed with the discharge of 10,000 reservists by end of July, but may face internal pushback from operational commanders.
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Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure will intensify over the next 30 days, as Russia seeks to exploit delays in Western air defense deliveries.
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The Boston Medical Center incident will prompt at least one U.S. congressional inquiry or letter to the hospital administration within 90 days.
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The NATO summit in Istanbul will produce a commitment to increase defense spending targets but will not agree on a concrete timeline for Ukraine's membership.
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The emergency conference of Hesder yeshiva students will lead to a formal petition or legal challenge against the Joint Service Order within 30 days.
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Iris Haim's public anguish will galvanize calls for a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures, with new momentum over the next 90 days.
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Iran's internal power struggle will delay finalization of the US-Iran deal beyond 90 days.
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IRGC will conduct a limited missile or drone test launch within 30 days, citing 'divine revenge' rhetoric.
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Haredi protests against businesses operating on Shabbat in mixed Jerusalem neighborhoods will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, driven by the Basmeta café incident.
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The US-Israel relationship will see increased public friction over military operations, with at least one more critical statement from a senior US official within 30 days.
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European governments will announce new heatwave early warning systems or infrastructure investments within 90 days, following the June 2026 deaths.
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Netanyahu's meeting with Trump will not produce a major shift in US policy toward Israel's military operations within 90 days.
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Israel-Venezuela relations will advance to the opening of a diplomatic representative office within 90 days, following the aid delegation.
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Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia will escalate into a limited cross-border attack within 30 days, but will not trigger a full war.
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The number of self-immolations in protest against Chinese rule in Tibet will increase over the next 90 days following Lobsang Rangzen's act.
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The IDF will not implement the proposed cuts to Home Front Command soldiers in Judea and Samaria settlements within 30 days, due to internal opposition from regional leaders and security concerns.
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The number of weapons seizures from IDF personnel will increase over the next 30 days, as police and military police intensify joint operations.