Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
443 forecasts
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The legal campaign to oust journalist Roni Koven will escalate into a formal complaint to the Second Authority for Television and Radio within 90 days.
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Public and political pressure on the justice system will increase following the lenient sentence for Shimon Adiel Hadari, leading to a Knesset committee discussion on sentencing guidelines for sex crimes within 90 days.
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The number of Haredi national service participants will increase by at least 10% within 90 days, driven by official praise and security track expansion.
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The Western Wall Law will not pass a Knesset vote within 90 days due to coalition infighting.
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The France-Cyprus SOFA will provoke Turkey to conduct additional naval exercises or airspace violations near Cyprus within 90 days.
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Kurdish rebel clashes in Iran will escalate, drawing IRGC reinforcements and causing at least 50 additional casualties within 90 days.
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The number of disabled parking permits will decrease following the State Comptroller's report, with a reduction of at least 5% within 90 days.
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Iran's nuclear posture will become more ambiguous, with increased IAEA inspections or public statements hinting at a shift, but no formal policy change within 90 days.
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The 'Secular House' in Thailand will attract at least 100 visitors in its first three months, but Chabad will maintain higher engagement among Israeli travelers.
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Coalition defections will continue, with at least one more local council head leaving Likud within 90 days.
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Romania's SPYDER deal with Rafael will face no significant EU procurement hurdles and will proceed to delivery within 90 days.
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The Israel-Lebanon agreement will face continued opposition from both Hezbollah and Israeli right-wing figures, reducing its effectiveness over the next 90 days.
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The volume of illegal weapons smuggled into Israel will not decrease significantly over the next 90 days, despite increased seizures and harsher sentences.
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Eisenkot's National Unity party will gain at least one additional Knesset seat in polls within 90 days, as his campaign gains traction.
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Arab crime organizations will expand their influence in Netanya, leading to at least one high-profile violent incident within 90 days.
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The number of Pride-related events or counter-events in Israeli cities will increase over the next 90 days as activists push back against cancellations.
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Internal disagreement within the Israeli government over the duration of the security zone in Lebanon will become more public, with at least one senior minister openly contradicting Katz's 'no withdrawal' stance.
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The US will increase THAAD deployments in the Middle East within 90 days, leveraging the new $35 billion contract.
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Police will face increased public criticism and possibly a Knesset inquiry into the failure to protect state witnesses' families.
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The High Court will rule on the frozen October 7 audit reports within 90 days, likely allowing publication of at least some of the eight blocked reports.
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Hezbollah's rhetoric of 'breaking the Israeli project' will translate into increased operational activity along the Lebanon-Israel border within 90 days, including attempted infiltrations or rocket fire.
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North Korea will accelerate its nuclear and naval buildup, using Iran's perceived vulnerability as justification, within 90 days.
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The IDF will face increasing internal tension over gender integration in combat units, with more yeshiva students refusing to serve alongside female soldiers.
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Iran's internal crackdown will intensify, with the number of executions surpassing 100 within 90 days, as the regime seeks to suppress dissent amid nuclear negotiations.
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Public trust in police will decline further following the officers' sex act incident, as measured by a poll within 90 days.
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Hezbollah's domestic support in Lebanon will continue to decline, with at least one major public opinion poll showing a drop in approval among Shiite respondents within 90 days.
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Washington's expanded contacts with the Israeli opposition will lead to at least one public meeting between a senior US official and an opposition leader within 90 days.
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The UAW divestment vote will inspire at least one other major US labor union to initiate a similar divestment process within 90 days.
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Public debate on the adult content industry will intensify following Athena Paris's confession, with at least one Knesset committee discussion on regulation within 90 days.
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The High Court will rule that the Attorney General must be investigated for conflict of interest in the Sde Teiman affair within 90 days.
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Gold prices will remain above $4,000 per ounce for at least 60 of the next 90 days.
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The complaint against police spokesperson Aryeh Doron will lead to an internal investigation or disciplinary action within 90 days.
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Gur Levy will be convicted of invasion of privacy but acquitted of rape, given his admission to filming and denial of rape.
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AIPAC's influence in Democratic primaries will weaken further over the next 90 days, as more candidates emulate Lander's rejection of funding.
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European diplomatic pressure on Israel will intensify over the next 90 days as Portugal's condemnation and Ireland's boycott bill set a precedent.
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Russia will commission additional military infrastructure within 90 km of the Finnish border within 90 days, as detected by satellite imagery.
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The Greek PM's warning and Zisser's critique will fuel a broader European reconsideration of diplomatic approaches to Israel, with some EU states publicly expressing unease.
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The closure of Bar Video will accelerate the decline of LGBTQ+ nightlife in Jerusalem, with no new dedicated venue opening within 90 days.
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The northern protest movement will expand to other excluded communities, pressuring the government to revise its aid criteria within 90 days.
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The trend of high-priced tourist traps in Rome will continue to attract media attention and consumer backlash over the next 90 days.
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The Turkey-Saudi railway project will not be operational within 365 days due to security and financing hurdles.
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The US will not finalize a purchase of the Chagos Islands within 90 days, given the complexity of negotiations with Mauritius.
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The number of reported settler attacks on Palestinian agricultural lands will increase by at least 10% compared to the same period last year, following the camel release incident.