Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
434 forecasts
-
The attack on Ilan Manes will lead to a formal police investigation and at least one arrest within 90 days.
-
Within 90 days, Iran and Oman will sign a formal agreement on Strait of Hormuz shipping that includes a payment mechanism, as reported in talks.
-
The assassination campaign against Russian military officers will expand to include at least one new high-ranking target within 90 days.
-
The Shfaram shooting case will result in an indictment with a criminal (non-nationalist) motive within 90 days, as reported.
-
The Likud Central Committee's approval of eight reserved places for Netanyahu will be challenged or annulled by a party court within 90 days.
-
Suhaila Ghanem will be publicly honored by at least one medical or Druze community organization within 90 days of her retirement.
-
The News 12 investigation into abuse at the Prime Minister's residence will lead to a formal inquiry or police investigation within 90 days.
-
The lawsuit filed by former residence employee Y. will lead to a formal investigation or court hearing within 90 days.
-
The reserve manpower shortage in southern Lebanon will become more acute, with at least one additional brigade reporting understaffing in official channels within 90 days.
-
Serbia's defense exports to Israel will continue to grow over the next 90 days, driven by the Elbit Systems deal and the 2026 intelligence-sharing agreement.
-
The number of Arabs killed in crime-related circumstances will exceed 200 by the end of 2026, given the current rate of 158 since the beginning of the year.
-
The reserve duty burden will become a more prominent public issue, with at least one major protest or Knesset debate specifically addressing the gap between official limits and actual service.
-
The coalition tensions over the Chief Rabbinate appointment will lead to a public rift between Shas and Religious Zionism within 90 days.
-
The US and Israel will sign a new MoU within 90 days that shifts from direct FMF to a joint R&D fund, reflecting Netanyahu's proposal.
-
Haredi enlistment will continue to rise over the next 90 days, but the rate of increase will slow as rabbinic opposition intensifies.
-
International human rights organizations will issue a joint report condemning conditions in Israeli prisons, citing the al-Barsh case, within 90 days.
-
The IDF will publicly disclose evidence linking Hezbollah's ceasefire violations to Iranian direction within 90 days.
-
The NYPD will officially classify the hammer attack at the Jewish Institute of Queens as a hate crime within 90 days, despite initial belief it was random.
-
The United States will impose new restrictions on Israeli military operations in the West Bank within 90 days, following the Turmus Ayya incident.
-
Iran will execute at least 5 of the 10 young men sentenced to death within 90 days, despite UN calls to halt.
-
The internal Iranian power struggle between civilian leadership and Revolutionary Guards will become more visible, with at least one public policy rift reported in major media within 90 days.
-
At least one additional snakebite incident in residential areas of Beit Shemesh will be reported in the next 90 days.
-
South Korean women will not achieve an average life expectancy exceeding 90 years by 2030, as predicted, due to low birth rates and aging population pressures.
-
The Welfare Ministry will open fewer than 50 new places in locked youth facilities within 90 days, despite the current waitlist of 132 children.
-
The University of Tokyo's findings on climate and suicide will be cited in at least one major policy proposal or parliamentary discussion in an OECD country within 90 days.
-
The appointment of Tamir Shneid as PM's spokesperson will be finalized within 90 days, despite potential legal challenges.
-
The number of Haredi national service participants will increase by at least 10% within 90 days, driven by official praise and security track expansion.
-
Kurdish rebel clashes in Iran will escalate, drawing IRGC reinforcements and causing at least 50 additional casualties within 90 days.
-
The 'Secular House' in Thailand will attract at least 100 visitors in its first three months, but Chabad will maintain higher engagement among Israeli travelers.
-
Public trust in police will decline further following the officers' sex act incident, as measured by a poll within 90 days.
-
Washington's expanded contacts with the Israeli opposition will lead to at least one public meeting between a senior US official and an opposition leader within 90 days.
-
The UAW divestment vote will inspire at least one other major US labor union to initiate a similar divestment process within 90 days.
-
The Turkey-Saudi railway project will not be operational within 365 days due to security and financing hurdles.
-
The trend of high-priced tourist traps in Rome will continue to attract media attention and consumer backlash over the next 90 days.