Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
1090 forecasts
-
The Joint List will not be fully reunited within 90 days, as internal disagreements over seat distribution persist.
-
The share of Arab Israeli doctors will remain stable or increase slightly over the next 90 days, as no new medical schools are announced to address the shortage.
-
Russia will not launch a major new offensive in Ukraine within 90 days, despite the perception of US weakness, as its own military capacity remains constrained.
-
The Volkswagen-Iron Dome production deal will face a public veto threat from the Qatari investment fund within 30 days, potentially delaying the conversion of the Osnabrück plant.
-
Nepal will accept international aid for flood relief within 90 days, as the death toll and missing persons numbers strain domestic capacity.
-
The Supreme Court will issue a final ruling on the Tomer-Yerushalmi case transfer within 30 days, either upholding the freeze or allowing the transfer to proceed.
-
The IDF will not receive the full 12+3 billion shekel transfer by the Rosh Hashanah deadline of September 11, leading to a partial halt in reserve duty call-ups within 30 days.
-
NATO will announce a formal plan to shift more defense responsibilities to European members within 90 days, following Colby's push.
-
Shas will publicly campaign against Attorney General Baharav-Miara within 30 days, framing the commemoration postponement as a political attack on Rabbi Ovadia Yosef's legacy.
-
The state will not establish a dedicated psychological rehabilitation fund for released hostages within 90 days, maintaining reliance on crowdfunding.
-
The number of road fatalities in Israel will exceed 300 by the end of September 2026, as the current pace of 291 since January continues without a new national safety plan.
-
The demand to reopen Road 463 will not result in a formal government decision within 30 days, as the security establishment's opposition remains unaddressed.
-
The Bank of Israel will hold its interest rate steady for at least the next 90 days, as rising US bond yields constrain the ability to cut despite low local inflation.
-
The PIMS hospital fire in Islamabad will trigger an official inquiry report that identifies specific safety violations within 90 days.
-
The number of reported violent incidents involving knives carried by minors will increase by at least 10% compared to the same period last year within 90 days.
-
The push to unite small right-wing parties under a technical bloc will fail within 30 days, as Netanyahu refrains from supporting the move.
-
Turkey's naval buildup, including the construction of 47 warships, will lead to at least one public diplomatic protest from a NATO ally (e.g., Greece, France) within 90 days.
-
CIA Director Ratcliffe's unannounced Moscow visit will be followed by a public statement from the Kremlin or the White House confirming a specific area of discussion within 30 days.
-
The Education Ministry will modify the nurse-for-aide pilot program before the August 30 deadline to avoid a High Court petition.
-
No new mine-laying incidents will be reported in the Strait of Hormuz within 90 days, following Trump's threat of destruction.
-
Police will publicly link the Or Akiva shooting to the Yushvayev assassination within 30 days.
-
The IDF will issue a public directive on handling stray dogs at bases within 30 days, following the Camp Noam euthanasia controversy.
-
The Hadera business targeted by two grenade attacks will be the site of a third violent incident within 90 days.
-
The IDF will publicly report at least one additional strike on a Hamas weapons production site within 30 days, as intelligence confirms renewed independent production.
-
Ofer Winter's party will surpass Religious Zionism in at least one additional public poll within 30 days.
-
The Likud primary recount will result in a change to the official list order, altering Gila Gamliel's realistic slot, within 30 days.
-
The IDF will deploy at least one additional regular brigade to the West Bank within 90 days, as concerns over a third intifada persist.
-
The use of AI-directed autonomous drones in combat will be reported in at least one new conflict zone within 90 days, following the precedent set in Ukraine.
-
The High Court's freeze on coalition funds will trigger a legislative attempt by coalition MKs to bypass the ruling within 30 days.
-
Turkish diplomatic pressure on Syria will intensify over the next 30 days, following the US delisting and Israeli-Syrian talks.
-
The share of Israeli parents reporting academic harm to their children will remain above 85% in any new survey within 30 days, as the school year begins and teacher shortages persist.
-
Internal police criticism over the Dayan case collapse will intensify, with at least one public call for an investigation into the investigation within 30 days.
-
Pakistan will publicly announce a mediation initiative between the US and Iran within 30 days, leveraging Munir's visit to Tehran.
-
The IDF will publicly announce at least one specific tactical change in Lebanon within 30 days, following the Northern Command's operational shift.
-
Qatar will take delivery of at least one Boeing KC-46A tanker within 90 days of the US approval, despite Israeli objections.
-
The state comptroller election will not be completed within 90 days, leaving the position vacant through the election period.
-
The number of kites launched from Gaza into Israel will increase by at least 50% over the next 90 days compared to the current baseline, as the IDF's strike in Shati camp fails to deter the practice.
-
Israel will bar at least one more European politician or delegation from entering the country within 90 days, citing anti-Israel positions.
-
US special envoys will increasingly preface remarks on occupied territories with explicit disclaimers that they are describing UN positions, not US policy, over the next 30 days.
-
Greece will announce at least one additional Patriot battery relocation within 30 days, citing the Iranian threat.
-
Iran will not carry out any overt military action to block Gulf oil exports within 90 days, despite Rezai's threat.
-
The share of Israelis who fear identifying themselves abroad will increase by at least 3 percentage points in the next poll within 30 days.
-
Iranian oil exports will remain at or above current levels over the next 30 days, as measured by tanker tracking data or official Iranian claims.
-
The frequency of price tag attacks in the West Bank will increase over the next 30 days, with at least two new incidents reported by Israeli media.
-
Internal Shas tensions over the enlistment law will produce at least one more public protest or heckling incident targeting a Shas MK within the next 30 days.
-
The number of shootings in Israel will remain at or above the current rate, with at least one new shooting incident reported per week over the next 90 days.
-
The share of National-Religious men in IDF reserve duty will continue to grow relative to their population share over the next 90 days, as secular participation declines further.
-
Swedish police will publicly identify a specific online community or platform linked to the Fagersta attacker within the next 30 days.
-
AIPAC's influence in Democratic primaries will decline measurably over the next 90 days, as at least one major Democratic candidate will explicitly refuse AIPAC endorsement or funding.
-
Russia will conduct at least one additional strike in Ukraine targeting a location where rescue or medical personnel are present within the next 30 days.