Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
436 forecasts
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Hezbollah's monthly salary payments to activists will decline in real value or frequency over the next 90 days, as Iranian funding prioritizes weapons rebuilding.
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The Knesset will hold a public hearing on the failure to protect northern educational institutions within 30 days.
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Netanyahu's request for eight reserved slots will be partially granted, with at least four slots allocated by the party's central committee within 90 days.
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The Iran-Qatar dispute over the three pilots will remain unresolved, with no public release or repatriation of the pilots within 90 days.
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The Likud primaries will produce a list where at least one MK who scored below 90% compatibility with Likud in the Walla questionnaire will be placed in a non-realistic slot, indicating internal friction.
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The Ministry of Education will face at least one public petition or legal challenge against the new non-unionized teacher track within 90 days.
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Avraham Burg's entry into the Knesset race will increase media coverage of left-wing opposition parties by at least 20% over the next 30 days.
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Israeli media coverage of 'threat stories' will decline by at least 30% from the August 9-11 peak, as public scrutiny of fake news increases.
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The Forward will name a new editor-in-chief within 90 days.
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The investigation into the Lod stabbing will lead to an arrest within 90 days, given the severity of the injury.
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The US Senate bill to recognize Judaism as an ethnic group will face formal opposition from Jewish organizations within 90 days.
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The investigation into Eldar Dayan's murder will produce at least one new formal step—such as an additional arrest, an indictment, or a charge against Berman or Peretz—within 90 days.
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The police officer fired for sexual relations with a released woman will face additional legal proceedings or a public appeal within 30 days.
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The grenade attack network in Bat Yam will be linked to at least one additional attack or arrest within 90 days.
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Kushner's regional initiative will produce at least one new bilateral agreement or public framework involving Israel, Egypt, or Gulf states within 90 days.
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Russia and North Korea will announce or conduct a joint military exercise within 90 days, building on their new agreement.
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Nazareth's 77-day streak without murder will be broken within 90 days, with at least one new killing reported in the city.
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The IDF will maintain control of the Ali Tahar ridge for at least 90 days, with no reported Hezbollah re-capture.
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The Tiberias 'kosher sidewalk' will face a legal challenge or public protest within 30 days.
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The appeal against Ohad Goldberg's promotion will result in a formal review or decision by the Police Internal Investigations Department within 90 days.
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The Rambam Hospital controversy will lead to at least one official inquiry or report on treatment of soldiers or Arab staff within 90 days, beyond the current IDF examination.
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The number of complex X-ray misreadings reported in Israeli media will increase over the next 30 days, as the study's findings prompt further investigation and public discussion.
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Iran's newly appointed IRGC commanders will initiate at least one major military exercise or operation within 90 days, signaling continuity of deterrence.
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The Democrats will face sustained internal criticism over leadership decisions, with at least one additional public resignation or high-profile complaint within 90 days.
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The Gulf states will intensify diplomatic pressure on the United States to ease the blockade, with at least two GCC members publicly calling for a negotiated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 90 days.
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The INS Dragon will arrive in Israel within 90 days, as announced, but will not be operational before 2027.
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The Alberta referendum on October 19 will pass with a majority supporting the start of separation talks, but the federal government will refuse to negotiate, citing the non-binding nature of the vote.
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International pressure on Hamas to disarm will intensify over the next 90 days, with at least one UN Security Council resolution or major statement calling for disarmament.
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The Al-Bahiri brothers will be convicted on at least one charge of assault or threatening behavior within 90 days.
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The number of reported speed-camera tickets issued by A-3 cameras will increase by at least 20% over the next 30 days following the enforcement threshold update.
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Kosovo's parliament will fail to elect a president within 30 days, triggering early elections.
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Greek authorities will increase police presence at pro-Palestinian protests over the next 90 days, aiming to prevent clashes with Israeli tourists.
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The Tair Rada case will see renewed public and media attention, with at least one new investigative report or official statement referencing possible child involvement within 90 days.
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The multinational force in Gaza will deploy fewer than 500 soldiers within 90 days, falling short of the expected Moroccan contribution.
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The 'Anyone but Bibi' camp's lead over Netanyahu will narrow to within 15 points in at least one major poll over the next 90 days, as the fluid 15% voter market shifts.
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The Afula municipality will face increased public pressure over the market's neglect, leading to at least one official statement or action plan within 90 days.
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Israeli courts will issue at least one more ruling in the next 90 days that overrides a signed financial agreement between spouses, citing changed circumstances.
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The number of workplace fatalities in Israel will exceed 60 by the end of the year, continuing the current pace.
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Public confrontations between October 7 victims' families and coalition politicians will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, with at least two more reported incidents in Israeli media.
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The US will announce a formal review or partial reversal of air defense withdrawals from Erbil within 90 days, following Kurdish protests.
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Over the next 30 days, there will be at least one more reported incident of flag desecration at a military cemetery in Israel.
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Within 90 days, the investigation into Eldar Dayan's death will yield at least one formal charge against a suspect, based on the abandoned car evidence.
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The opposition bloc's seat lead in polls will narrow to within 5 seats of the coalition within 90 days, as small parties fail to cross the threshold.
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The Democrats will publicly propose a specific alternative to the Haredi draft law within 90 days, likely involving phased enlistment targets.
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The second-track talks involving former UK, French, and German officials will be publicly acknowledged by at least one participating country's government within 30 days.
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Police will make at least one additional arrest in the suspected gang rape case in the north within 90 days.
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The Link Up app will gain official recognition or funding from an Israeli municipality or NGO within 90 days.
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Turkey's citizenship revocation will expand to at least 7,000 total revocations within 30 days, as the crackdown on sham transactions continues.
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The Democratic Party's shift away from unconditional support for Israel will intensify, with at least one more incumbent critic of Israel losing a primary within 90 days.
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The number of Israeli strikes in Gaza will decline by at least 20% over the next 30 days compared to the previous 30 days, as the new approval requirement takes effect.