Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
443 forecasts
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The Knesset will hold a hearing on emergency preparedness for senior citizens in the Gaza envelope within 90 days.
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The Elem report's findings will prompt a Knesset committee hearing on youth violence within 90 days.
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The 'March of the Thousands' will not lead to any formal government policy change regarding settlement expansion or Gaza access within 90 days.
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The Ministry of Labor will announce a new enforcement campaign on construction site safety within 90 days, following 23 construction worker deaths since the start of the year.
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The opposition's anti-ultra-Orthodox campaign will lose momentum within 90 days, as internal divisions emerge over the lack of alternative policy platforms.
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At least one major Israeli party will adopt a binding gender parity mechanism (zipper list or quota) within 90 days, following pressure from the 5050 project.
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The University of Tokyo's findings on climate and suicide will be cited in at least one major policy proposal or parliamentary discussion in an OECD country within 90 days.
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At least one additional Arab state will join the military coalition against the Houthis within 90 days, following the pattern of Kuwait and the UAE.
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The incoming Colombian government will formally withdraw from the ICJ genocide lawsuit against Israel within 90 days, following the agreement between Sa'ar and Escobar.
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The US-Israel relationship will face a public rift within 90 days, as Arab diplomatic pressure on Trump to distance from Netanyahu intensifies.
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The use of explosive devices by criminal organizations in Israel will see a measurable increase in the next 90 days, reversing the reported 30% decrease.
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The disparity in shelter access between Jewish and Arab communities will be addressed by a government committee within 90 days, following media pressure.
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The IDF will secure an alternative procurement of attack helicopters within 90 days to compensate for the missed Apache deal.
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The Privacy Protection Authority will issue new guidelines for age verification in online sales of smoking products within 90 days, following the Smoking Cessation Initiative's call.
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The Israeli Defense Ministry's strategic plan with India will yield a formal memorandum of understanding or joint defense project announcement within 90 days.
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Bnei Brak's gender-segregated street policy will face a legal challenge at the High Court of Justice within 90 days.
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The appointment of Tamir Shneid as PM's spokesperson will be finalized within 90 days, despite potential legal challenges.
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The controversy over PEN America's stance on cultural boycotts will lead to at least one more prominent resignation or public protest from a board member within 90 days.
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The IDF will increase enforcement along the Syrian border to prevent civilian crossings, following the detention of activists and the 'Pioneers of Bashan' incident.
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The High Court will issue a ruling on the yeshiva tax benefits petition within 90 days, either dismissing it or ordering further state explanation.
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Mortgage volumes will remain above 10 billion shekels per month for at least two of the next three months, sustaining the June surge.
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The IDF will implement new social media conduct rules for soldiers within 90 days, following the Shira Brown scandal.
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The Likud internal election proposal will be revised to a compromise giving Netanyahu 4-5 reserved slots.
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The arrest of four settlers for attacking a CNN crew will lead to increased political pressure on Israel Police to enforce the law against settler violence, but no significant policy change will occur within 90 days.
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Brazil's Flávio Bolsonaro will publicly reiterate his pledge to move the embassy to Jerusalem if elected, but no concrete diplomatic steps will be taken before the 2026 election.
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Rafael's factory in India will begin production of Iron Dome interceptors within 90 days, as a strategic move to diversify supply chains.
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The Supreme Court will face renewed legislative attempts to limit its power of judicial review over Knesset laws within 90 days.
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Workplace safety enforcement will intensify, with at least one new regulation or task force announced within 90 days following the latest fatalities.
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Qatar's veto of the Volkswagen-Rafael deal will not be overturned, and Rafael will advance its India production line as an alternative.
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The number of North American olim making aliyah via Nefesh B'Nefesh will decline by at least 10% in summer 2027 compared to summer 2026, as security concerns and identity tensions reduce migration.
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The number of registered discrimination cases in Israel will increase in the second half of 2026 compared to the first half, following heightened media attention on anti-racism enforcement.
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The State Comptroller's report on human trafficking will lead to at least one Knesset committee hearing dedicated to the issue within 90 days.
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The labor dispute in nursing will lead to at least one limited strike day within 90 days, as negotiations fail to resolve the acute shortage of personnel.
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The 'One Health' approach presented by Professor Sadetsky will be formally adopted in a Health Ministry directive within 90 days.
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The low indictment rate for settler violence (6.6%) will be cited by human rights groups in international forums to push for sanctions or diplomatic measures against Israeli authorities.
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The October 7 commemoration bill will pass into law within 90 days, but will face controversy over its scope and implementation.
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The State Comptroller's audit on prostitution law enforcement will lead to legislative proposals to reform the law within 90 days.
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The Irish ban on settlement imports will be followed by at least one other EU member state introducing similar legislation within 90 days.
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Bar Kupershtein's public appeal will lead to at least one government or NGO initiative to support released hostage reintegration within 90 days.
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The national commission of inquiry into October 7 will face political obstacles that delay its formation beyond 90 days.
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Iran will not release the Foremans within 90 days, but the hunger strike will increase international pressure on Tehran.
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Israel-Azerbaijan relations will experience a cooling period with at least one public diplomatic incident within 90 days.
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The Histadrut-OPZZ memorandum will lead to at least one joint labor initiative or exchange program within 90 days.
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The Boston Medical Center incident will prompt at least one U.S. congressional inquiry or letter to the hospital administration within 90 days.
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The NATO summit in Istanbul will produce a commitment to increase defense spending targets but will not agree on a concrete timeline for Ukraine's membership.
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Iris Haim's public anguish will galvanize calls for a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures, with new momentum over the next 90 days.
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Netanyahu's meeting with Trump will not produce a major shift in US policy toward Israel's military operations within 90 days.
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European governments will announce new heatwave early warning systems or infrastructure investments within 90 days, following the June 2026 deaths.
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The number of self-immolations in protest against Chinese rule in Tibet will increase over the next 90 days following Lobsang Rangzen's act.
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Public criticism of Netanyahu over his October 7 joke will persist, but will not trigger a coalition crisis within 90 days.